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The run-in to promotion

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1 The run-in to promotion on Thu Apr 06 2017, 10:03

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Having overcome Southend I am now far more confident that we can't be caught and after all it's in our hands. But supposing we do go into meltdown. Is there anything in the remaining fixtures that would give us hope that Bradford and Fleetwood might drop points themselves?

Not much from what I can see other than Bradford's away tie at Sheff U - although SU may have promotion wrapped up by then. 

Fleetwood have:

Oldham A
Posh H
Millwall H - could be close
Gills A
Port V H

Is 13 points a fair assessment of that?

Bradford have:

Bury A
Oxford H
SU A
AFC Wimbledon H
Rochdale A - could be a last day battle if Dale are still in with a shout

I'm thinking 11 points i.e. not enough.

If that comes true it means we need 6 more points (7 to be sure) from:

Scunny A
Oldham A
Bury H
Port Vale A
Posh H

...and if we don't make that we wouldn't deserve to be promoted.

It's ours to lose and I suspect these two teams will chase us all the way but surely we can't blow this advantage now? Can we?

2 Re: The run-in to promotion on Thu Apr 06 2017, 11:32

BoltonTillIDie

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John McGinlay
John McGinlay
Fleetwood - 13 Pts

Win - Oldham - 3Pts
Win - Posh - 3Pts
Draw - Millwall - 1pt
Win - Gills - 3Pts
Win - Port V -3Pts

Bradford - 10 Points

Win - Bury - 3Pts
Win - Oxford - 3Pts
Loss - Sheff Utd - 0Pts
Win - AFC Wimbledon - 3Pts
Draw - Rochdale - 1Pt


Bolton - 15Pts


Win - Scunny - 3Pts
Win - Oldham - 3Pts
Win - Bury - 3Pts
Win - Port Vale - 3Pts
Win - Posh - 3Pts



we'll comfortably get the 2nd spot

3 Re: The run-in to promotion on Thu Apr 06 2017, 11:36

rammywhite

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El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf
We'll get 9 points from this lot- the last three will be wins-and that will see us home and dry

4 Re: The run-in to promotion on Fri Apr 07 2017, 09:29

gloswhite

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Youri Djorkaeff
Youri Djorkaeff
I like the predictions, but lets not forget how we tend to trip up against the lower, or struggling, teams.
Having said that, I'm hopeful that we can make it. 
Of the final 15 points available, we already have 7 of them, plus better GD, so even if we stand still, (unlikely), Fleetwood need a guaranteed 3 wins to get in front of us, so, to my thinking, we need two wins out of the remaining games to guarantee it. (or have I missed something ?)

5 Re: The run-in to promotion on Fri Apr 07 2017, 12:12

Sluffy

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Admin
gloswhite wrote:Of the final 15 points available, we already have 7 of them, plus better GD, so even if we stand still, (unlikely), Fleetwood need a guaranteed 3 wins to get in front of us, so, to my thinking, we need two wins out of the remaining games to guarantee it. (or have I missed something ?)

Well I guess Fleetwood could win all their remaining 5 games and we could lose all ours, so they would finish 8 points in front of us (15 points less the 7 point lead we have now) - so in that case we would need 3 wins (and not two) to be mathematically certain of promotion.

Obviously the less points Fleetwood get the less we would need - just so long as we both don't drop so many that it lets Bradford back in.

I can't not see us going up in reality though and have been so for quite some time now.

6 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sat Apr 08 2017, 13:58

gloswhite

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Youri Djorkaeff
Youri Djorkaeff
I hope youre right Sluffy, but just one wrong result sets us all  off again Very Happy

7 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 09 2017, 00:30

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
How do we account for that then?

We lose, Sheff U lose and yet they get promoted and we are better off than we were as we're still seven points ahead but now there are only 4 games left.

Brilliant.

8 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 09 2017, 01:05

observer


Andy Walker
Andy Walker
Essentially, Fleetwood and Bradford have to win 3 of their 4 remaining games to have a shot at second.  Saying that, if we win one and draw one of the remaining 4, that would put us at 83 points, and either Fleetwood or Bradford would have to then win all 4 remaining games to beat us.  If we win 2, it is over... if we win one and draw two, it is over.  Second is within our own grasp... and I hope we don't limp to the finish line, but climb over it.  Let's go out strong!

9 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 09 2017, 03:46

finlaymcdanger


Andy Walker
Andy Walker
We'll go up but Madine is the key to securing it quickly. Never thought I would say that but I think it's the reality to how we best perform. We rarely take the easy path but I believe we'll crawl over the line and go up automatically

10 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 09 2017, 10:02

Sluffy

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Admin
wanderlust wrote:How do we account for that then?

We lose, Sheff U lose and yet they get promoted and we are better off than we were as we're still seven points ahead but now there are only 4 games left.

Brilliant.

Sheffield United won.

11 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 09 2017, 10:52

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Sluffy wrote:
wanderlust wrote:How do we account for that then?

We lose, Sheff U lose and yet they get promoted and we are better off than we were as we're still seven points ahead but now there are only 4 games left.

Brilliant.

Sheffield United won.

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12 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 09 2017, 11:05

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
I hope the players have read this:

What more incentive could they need to finish the job?

13 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 09 2017, 11:54

gloswhite

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Youri Djorkaeff
Youri Djorkaeff
What some people seem to ignore is that we now have 2 teams who could, theoretically, overtake us, whereas, up to yesterday, there was only one. I consider that to mean the pressure has increased, and though there is only 4 games to go, its going to go to the wire. 
We have 2 teams who will be playing for mid table mediocrity, (although wanting to go out in style for their fans), and 2 playing for survival. Its not the easiest of run-ins, but, I hope, manageable.

14 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 09 2017, 11:57

Natasha Whittam

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
If we fuck it up from here heads should roll.

Starting with the manager, who appears clueless.

15 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 09 2017, 13:38

NickFazer

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
One thing Parky isn't is clueless, although we have a bigger budget than most in this league, which is an advantage he has still turned around a team that came down from the Championship with one of the worst records ever into one that should go back up at the 1st attempt. A team that was a soft touch especially away from home and conceded goals for fun, a team that would drop it's collective head as soon as any kind of setback occurred, a team so lacking in morale and confidence it looked frightened to death even if it got in front in a game.

His teams will probably never get any points for style but we have been in every single game this season and when we haven't played well have at least competed. If we go up next season will be a struggle, we all know what the Championship is like, to survive you need to be aggressive, organised and work hard at least with Parky those requirements should be met.

16 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 09 2017, 13:52

Natasha Whittam

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
NickFazer wrote:One thing Parky isn't is clueless

He is clueless.

He has one tactic, hoof it to Madine and cross his fingers.

When Madine hasn't played he has continued the same tactic but with little men up front or, like yesterday, brought in a tall player who isn't good enough for professional football.

Anyone who went to the Chesterfield game will feel my frustration. Imagine that sort of performance when we're rooted in the bottom three of the Championship.

To survive in the Championship we will need to adapt to different situations, Parky has consistently shown he has one tactic and one tactic only.

Our last season in the Championship consisted of one tactic also - hoof it to Madine or Heskey, remind me how that ended?

I'll tell you now, if we go up we will be relegated by February with Parky in charge. At the end of the season I'd thank him for his services and get rid.

17 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 09 2017, 15:08

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
gloswhite wrote:What some people seem to ignore is that we now have 2 teams who could, theoretically, overtake us, whereas, up to yesterday, there was only one. I consider that to mean the pressure has increased, and though there is only 4 games to go, its going to go to the wire. 
We have 2 teams who will be playing for mid table mediocrity, (although wanting to go out in style for their fans), and 2 playing for survival. Its not the easiest of run-ins, but, I hope, manageable.
Technically there are still 4 teams that can overtake us Glos - although Millwall would have to win all their games and score a bucketload to do it whilst we lose all our remaining games spectacularly.

Until yesterday, there were 5 teams that could theoretically have caught us but with Southend losing to Charlton there are now only 4.


The good news is that yesterday confirmed that we are guaranteed a playoff place at least.

::dance::

With Oldham only being 3 points above the drop zone, I make it 3 teams we still have to play who are in danger of relegation but hey - they are down there for a reason so we really don't have any excuses if we blow it from here.

18 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 09 2017, 20:23

NickFazer

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
Natasha Whittam wrote:
NickFazer wrote:One thing Parky isn't is clueless

He is clueless.

He has one tactic, hoof it to Madine and cross his fingers.

When Madine hasn't played he has continued the same tactic but with little men up front or, like yesterday, brought in a tall player who isn't good enough for professional football.

Anyone who went to the Chesterfield game will feel my frustration. Imagine that sort of performance when we're rooted in the bottom three of the Championship.

To survive in the Championship we will need to adapt to different situations, Parky has consistently shown he has one tactic and one tactic only.

Our last season in the Championship consisted of one tactic also - hoof it to Madine or Heskey, remind me how that ended?

I'll tell you now, if we go up we will be relegated by February with Parky in charge. At the end of the season I'd thank him for his services and get rid.

I never said he was tactical genius, but he can't be clueless. He knows how to get a completely dysfunctional rabble to be organised and resilient enough to be within 6 points of automatic promotion with 4 games left, win 11 times on the road when we couldn't buy a win last season and have the best defensive record in the division. If that's clueless then what does that make the rest? Parky may well get found out in the Championship but surely he should get a shot

19 Re: The run-in to promotion on Mon Apr 10 2017, 18:12

terenceanne

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El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf
Obviously the Wilkinson experiment didn't work but I am for giving young lads a chance. So not overly complaining. But can somebody explain to me Wheater being thrown upfront when we have Long parked on the bench. Anyhow for me a couple of tweaks for Tuesday... Long in obviously, and Derik in for Dervite ..... and maybe Karacan as an early sub for Spearing or Pratts .....depending on how it's going.

20 Re: The run-in to promotion on Mon Apr 10 2017, 18:15

Natasha Whittam

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
terenceanne wrote:Obviously the Wilkinson experiment didn't work but I am for giving young lads a chance. So not overly complaining. But can somebody explain to me Wheater being thrown upfront when we have Long parked on the bench. Anyhow for me a couple of tweaks for Tuesday... Long in obviously, and Derik in for Dervite ..... and maybe Karacan as an early sub for Spearing or Pratts .....depending on how it's going.

Clueless.

You'd change the defence despite conceding just 1 goal in the last 4 matches?

The problem is tactics and striking personnel.

Consider yourself branded a bellend. Again.

21 Re: The run-in to promotion on Mon Apr 10 2017, 21:33

gloswhite

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Youri Djorkaeff
Youri Djorkaeff
You've been very unforgiving since you hit 33 Nat. Is this the new you ?  Very Happy

22 Re: The run-in to promotion on Tue Apr 11 2017, 13:40

terenceanne

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El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf
Natasha Whittam wrote:
terenceanne wrote:Obviously the Wilkinson experiment didn't work but I am for giving young lads a chance. So not overly complaining. But can somebody explain to me Wheater being thrown upfront when we have Long parked on the bench. Anyhow for me a couple of tweaks for Tuesday... Long in obviously, and Derik in for Dervite ..... and maybe Karacan as an early sub for Spearing or Pratts .....depending on how it's going.

Clueless.

You'd change the defence despite conceding just 1 goal in the last 4 matches?

The problem is tactics and striking personnel.

Consider yourself branded a bellend. Again.


This is from somebody who says we will get dicked every single game and wants the manager out ASAP.

No clue.

23 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sat Apr 15 2017, 14:34

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Well we've lost the first 2 of the five. Worryingly, we haven't looked like scoring let alone winning although we did hit the bar a couple of times today - but other than that just one shot on target.  
So how can we now be confident of winning two of the last three? 
Maybe we won't have to? Suspect we will though.
What is for sure is that Bradford and Fleetwood will have been massively encouraged by our problems.

24 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sat Apr 15 2017, 15:09

Natasha Whittam

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
I doubt the players give a shit, better chance of a new contract if we stay in League 1.

25 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sat Apr 15 2017, 20:02

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Natasha Whittam wrote:I doubt the players give a shit, better chance of a new contract if we stay in League 1.

They mustn't have much of a grasp of economics then. 
If we don't get promoted we're going under and we may never come back.

26 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sat Apr 15 2017, 20:24

Natasha Whittam

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
wanderlust wrote:
If we don't get promoted we're going under and we may never come back.

Utter rubbish.

27 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 16 2017, 13:07

finlaymcdanger


Andy Walker
Andy Walker
This site should be renamed Bolton Drama Queens

28 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 16 2017, 13:44

Bread2.0

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Andy Walker
Andy Walker
Natasha Whittam wrote:
wanderlust wrote:
If we don't get promoted we're going under and we may never come back.

Utter rubbish.

The accounts (the most current set) are now officially overdue and we're still haemorrhaging money hand over fist.

Anderson's propping up the cash flow from month to month but we don't know how long he's prepared to keep doing it.

If the rumours are true, he's probably pinning everything on us going up this season, so if we fuck it up, who knows what'll happen next season.

Failure to secure promotion at the first attempt could well be catastrophic.

29 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 16 2017, 14:30

MartinBWFC

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El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf
Bread2.0 wrote:
Natasha Whittam wrote:
wanderlust wrote:
If we don't get promoted we're going under and we may never come back.

Utter rubbish.

The accounts (the most current set) are now officially overdue and we're still haemorrhaging money hand over fist.

Anderson's propping up the cash flow from month to month but we don't know how long he's prepared to keep doing it.

If the rumours are true, he's probably pinning everything on us going up this season, so if we fuck it up, who knows what'll happen next season.

Failure to secure promotion at the first attempt could well be catastrophic.
Anderson has already said that the big earners will be gone in Summer, so the finances will be in a more stable position, where that leaves us as a team is another question, no promotion this season could well mean another Phil Neal era.

30 Re: The run-in to promotion on Sun Apr 16 2017, 15:53

wanderlust

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Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
If we don't go up we'll have to get our finances in L1 order and given that we are currently living beyond our means and still losing money the only obvious way is to shed assets and even then we may struggle. We all know that some of the high earners will be off anyway, but the difference in promotion is twofold: how deep the player cuts will have to be (and ergo our chances of being competitive) and our chances of getting investors. 
I know which I'd prefer.

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