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Bolton Nuts » BWFC » Bolton Wanderers Banter » Will we do it? - the run in thread

Will we do it? - the run in thread

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Norpig
Natasha Whittam
Whitesince63
finlaymcdanger
Biggie
wanderlust
Ten Bobsworth
Sluffy
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81Will we do it? - the run in thread - Page 5 Empty Re: Will we do it? - the run in thread Mon Apr 25 2022, 10:59

Biggie

Biggie
Admin

I WAS RIGHT - WE WOULD HAVE DONE IT ! Maybe.

A quick glance at the table makes you think we wouldn't have made the play offs if we had won all our remaining games. As winning them all would have landed us on 79 points. Currently the top 6 are on 80 points or more.

HOWEVER.

One of our games was a loss against Plymouth. 
If we had won that, Plymouth, currently in 5th place, on 80 points would instead be on 77 points - and we would be on 76 points going into the last match.

I said that if we won all our matches in the run in - that it would all come down to results on the final day of the season - that we would still be in it.

And we would.

But we are not. SO there.

http://boltonnuts.forumotion.co.uk

82Will we do it? - the run in thread - Page 5 Empty Re: Will we do it? - the run in thread Thu Apr 28 2022, 17:55

BarrygoestoBolton


Mario Jardel
Mario Jardel

Just a few stats to update a post I made a while ago.
Counting only the games after most of the new January recruits arrived, we have 2.095 points per game (PPG), which over a full season would amount to 96.37 points.  Easily enough to be champions.
Counting all the games from 1st January, which is before any new recruits arrived, we have a PPG of 1.913 equivalent to 88 points, towards the top of the playoff places.
Arguably the two games in early January, Rotherham away and Wycombe at home, would have been challenging whoever was in our squad, so maybe they would have brought the 2.095 PPG down a bit, but still enough for automatics even if not champions.

83Will we do it? - the run in thread - Page 5 Empty Re: Will we do it? - the run in thread Fri Apr 29 2022, 15:35

Biggie

Biggie
Admin

BarrygoestoBolton wrote:Just a few stats to update a post I made a while ago.
Counting only the games after most of the new January recruits arrived, we have 2.095 points per game (PPG), which over a full season would amount to 96.37 points.  Easily enough to be champions.
Counting all the games from 1st January, which is before any new recruits arrived, we have a PPG of 1.913 equivalent to 88 points, towards the top of the playoff places.
Arguably the two games in early January, Rotherham away and Wycombe at home, would have been challenging whoever was in our squad, so maybe they would have brought the 2.095 PPG down a bit, but still enough for automatics even if not champions.

Yeah I posted similar and worked out that in current form we would win the league easily with 99 points.
The thread was called, how good we really are....

http://boltonnuts.forumotion.co.uk

84Will we do it? - the run in thread - Page 5 Empty Re: Will we do it? - the run in thread Sat Apr 30 2022, 14:45

BarrygoestoBolton


Mario Jardel
Mario Jardel

Just to finalise this now the final game has been played, our PPG since the January 1st was 1.958, equivalent to 90 points in a full season.
Counting only games since the most of the new recruits arrived - the Ipswich game on 15th January - brings the PPG up to 2.136, equivalent to 98 points. 
To put this in perspective, Wigan were just crowned champions with 92 points followed by Rotherham with 90 points in second and MK Dons got the top playoff spot with 89 points, while Wycombe managed the bottom playoff spot with 83 points.

... and we finished 9th courtesy of our own 2 goal difference against Fleetwood and Portsmouth losing to 4-1 to Sheffield Wednesday.

85Will we do it? - the run in thread - Page 5 Empty Re: Will we do it? - the run in thread Sat Apr 30 2022, 19:57

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

wanderlust wrote:Imagine the (impossible) scenario where we win every remaining game of the season including those against the teams above us. We'd finish on 84 points.

Now imagine that every other game between the 10 teams above us that BOTH SIDES LOSE i.e. neither team gets any points - but they win their games against the teams below us.

This is how the table would finish:

Wigan 93
Rotherham 91
-------------
Sheff W 85
MKD 84
BWFC 84
Sunderland 83
-------------
Wycombe 82
Plymouth 78
Oxford 77
Ipswich  71
Portsmouth 69


Miracle - and perspective - required.
Well we didn’t get that miracle despite a respectable run in and it took a while for everyone to get some perspective- especially Evatt although I suspect his bluster was intended to Gee up the troops - but the finishing line for the playoff places this year ended up at a mahoosive 83 points.

Given the quality of the teams coming down especially Derby it wouldn’t be surprising if a similar target will be required next year.

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