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Brexit negotiations

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gloswhite
Dunkels King
wanderlust
Reebok Trotter
Natasha Whittam
Angry Dad
Hipster_Nebula
Growler
wessy
Cajunboy
rammywhite
okocha
finlaymcdanger
Norpig
karlypants
luckyPeterpiper
Sluffy
21 posters

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621Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 11:52

gloswhite

gloswhite
Guðni Bergsson
Guðni Bergsson

The point is XM, why are they not being presented to the public as was every other so-called catastrophic or calamitous set of figures. I suspect that people are jumping on the terminology bandwagon, without knowing the facts. A practice that has been going on throughout this whole procedure, by both sides. 
I quite believe we will hear less from Thornberry now that she won't be able to spout her favourite '6 tests' every time she is interviewed. (I don't know if she is capable of learning new phrases or ideas very quickly, so we may have a respite from her face-pulling and eye-rolling antics).

622Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 12:10

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Laura Kuenssberg on 8 possible outccomes of today's vote:


1) Let's start with the least likely outcome. A miracle could take place overnight and scores of MPs might suddenly find themselves swinging behind the prime minister's plan.
The vote goes through, she shouts hurray, and the process moves on smoothly.
We leave the EU as planned in less than three months, and Theresa May's place in history is secure (no laughing at the back).
2) The defeat is disastrous and a combination of pressure from some ministers and MPs forces the PM to reach across the aisle.
Depending on the scale of the defeat, and the reaction of Labour front and backbenchers, Westminster might be ushered into a different phase of bargaining across the benches.
One Labour MP told me today: "At some stage I will vote for the deal, but I will need something specific to show for it. We are about to enter an era of transactional politics."
Cross-party working may not be some kind of high-minded pursuit.
Brexit negotiations - Page 32 _105183070_f9c4e965-1cdd-4cd6-8421-d973dc28c9a6Image copyrightPA
3) The scale of the likely loss might prompt the kind of parliamentary takeover that's been much discussed in the last couple of days.
Arguably this might be one of the most long-lasting impacts.
Rewriting the parliamentary rulebook may inevitably be largely of interest to nerds like me, but the kind of suggestions these extraordinary times are prompting might reshape the relationship between the government and MPs for years to come - and that matters.
4) Given that the balance in Parliament is definitely for a softer Brexit with closer ties to the EU, (arguably) the defeat on Tuesday might lead to a less dramatic break with the EU than the deal on the table promises.
One member of the cabinet tonight told me: "The longer this goes on, the softer Brexit gets."
Before you scream, I know that is not a view that is shared universally. But it is sincerely held by plenty of people around the place who point rather frustratedly to the irony.
As another member of cabinet said: "The hardline Brexiteers will push us toward a softer Brexit by digging in their resistance."
5) Technically speaking, if you don't assume (and assumptions are dangerous) that Parliament can and would block no deal, the rejection of the plan would move us closer to leaving without a deal.
That's not just because Eurosceptics are showing very little sign of budging, but remember the process is on a clock.
Article 50 has to come to a conclusion by the end of March and, as the law currently stands, we are leaving with or without an agreement.
Some other ministers in the cabinet believe very firmly once the vote is lost the PM has not much choice other than to up no-deal prep again in the hope, not of going that way, but of trying for another EU concession.
One told me it is the "only logical conclusion" to keep going steadily and hope the EU will break - a continuation of the high-stakes poker game.
6) Jeremy Corbyn will either delight or disappoint his ranks by having the bottle to force a confidence vote, or delaying again, waiting for a magic moment.
But he seems unlikely to take the bold step many of his members want and to move to offering another referendum.
Brexit negotiations - Page 32 _105183989_bef10377-5c3f-4b36-95af-18afdeb95d53Image copyrightAFP/GETTY IMAGES
7) For those campaigning for another European referendum, too, the scale of the defeat, and Tuesday night's front bench responses to it, are vital.
The outcome of the vote will affect whether we leave the EU on time, and less likely, whether we could be given another say on whether we leave at all.
And when those truths eventually reveal themselves, they in turn could have an impact on the fabric of the UK itself.
What happens in Northern Ireland, or to the case for Scottish independence, are part of what is at stake in the long term.
Cool Lastly, after more than two years of endless discussions, as and when the vote goes down on this hard-fought compromise, Westminster's factions and rival camps might finally have to do more than talk amongst themselves, and actually bend or break.
The divisions are so intense in both the main political parties that it could also be the moment some of the divisions turn into real splits.
That really would be history happening in front of our eyes.

623Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 12:21

gloswhite

gloswhite
Guðni Bergsson
Guðni Bergsson

Good points. I don't always like Kuenssberg's reporting, feeling that she is sometimes too biased in her approach. At the end of the day, some of the changes mooted could be the end of Parliament as we know it, especially when people such as Bercow is prepared to throw out time tested tradition in favour of his own personal views.

624Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 12:25

Hipster_Nebula

Hipster_Nebula
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

We won't leave. Don't know why this is still being discussed.

It's a quite naked stitch up.

625Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 12:33

karlypants

karlypants
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

I’m buying a yellow vest in preparation.

626Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 12:35

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Hipster_Nebula wrote:We won't leave. Don't know why this is still being discussed.

It's a quite naked stitch up.
If it is, it has an ironic symmetry with the 2016 referendum, the biggest stitch up in memory.

The upside is that only a quarter of the population will be arsed about it.

627Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 15:39

Cajunboy

Cajunboy
Frank Worthington
Frank Worthington

Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Shoppi10
karlypants wrote:I’m buying a yellow vest in preparation.
I've ordered mine already.

I'm getting a gas mask too for when it turns nasty.

628Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 15:54

Dunkels King

Dunkels King
Nicolas Anelka
Nicolas Anelka

wanderlust wrote:
Hipster_Nebula wrote:We won't leave. Don't know why this is still being discussed.

It's a quite naked stitch up.
If it is, it has an ironic symmetry with the 2016 referendum, the biggest stitch up in memory.

The upside is that only a quarter of the population will be arsed about it.

That may be so, but friends that I considered sane and upstanding citizens are already foaming at the mouth on Faceache and Twatter about burning down the Houses of Parliament and suchlike if we don't "just leave now".

629Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 16:01

Dunkels King

Dunkels King
Nicolas Anelka
Nicolas Anelka

Did anyone else notice the irony of Theresa May's visit to the Pottery in Stoke where she made her big Brexit speech ? they got a 430,000 quid EU Grant in 2002. For me, that is part of the problem. A lot of areas that overwhelmingly supported Brexit had no idea that many grants for things like this, further education facilities, business start up and infrastructure regeneration are actually being funded by the EU. Whilst many will say that this could be funded directly by the UK, the reality is that our Government spend basically next to fuck all outside of the South East of England.

630Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 16:41

Hipster_Nebula

Hipster_Nebula
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

The EU has no money. They simply take ours and decide how much of it to give us back.

We contribute more than we take.

631Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 17:40

Guest


Guest

Think you’re over simplifying it. Financial services base themselves in London because of access to the single market and low barriers to dealing in Europe - that has generated huge amounts of money.

Regardless of what happens now a lot of damage has already been done to the UKs standing in those industries, rather than waiting to find out what’s happening they’ve already acted.

632Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 17:44

xmiles

xmiles
Jay Jay Okocha
Jay Jay Okocha

Hipster_Nebula wrote:The EU has no money. They simply take ours and decide how much of it to give us back.

We contribute more than we take.

As I am sure you already know the size of member states' payments to the EU budget is broadly dependent on the size of their economy. So we contribute less than Germany and France and slightly more than Italy.

In terms of net givers and receivers Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium and France all proportionately pay more than the UK.

Still actual facts are completely irrelevant for brexit fans.

633Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 19:56

xmiles

xmiles
Jay Jay Okocha
Jay Jay Okocha

634Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 19:58

boltonbonce

boltonbonce
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Huge defeat for the Government. Expected a defeat, but the numbers surprised me.

635Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 20:18

Hipster_Nebula

Hipster_Nebula
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

xmiles wrote:
Hipster_Nebula wrote:The EU has no money. They simply take ours and decide how much of it to give us back.

We contribute more than we take.

As I am sure you already know the size of member states' payments to the EU budget is broadly dependent on the size of their economy. So we contribute less than Germany and France and slightly more than Italy.

In terms of net givers and receivers Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium and France all proportionately pay more than the UK.

Still actual facts are completely irrelevant for brexit fans.

Nothing I said was wrong.

636Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 20:40

Sluffy

Sluffy
Admin

boltonbonce wrote:Huge defeat for the Government. Expected a defeat, but the numbers surprised me.

Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Dw-jI5AWoAA3mzm

Very Happy

637Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 20:47

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

An utterly pointless vote of no confidence proposed by Labour, they won't get May out.

But it'll be another day wasted bickering about nothing.

Our politicians, from all parties, have let the country down.

Even I'd now welcome a second referendum.

638Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 20:51

Guest


Guest

She’s just wasted an entire month on this deal. And two years negotiating for a make believe deal. We need leadership who can get a better deal.

639Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 21:00

wanderlust

wanderlust
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

Battered by 230 votes - has to be some kind of record.

640Brexit negotiations - Page 32 Empty Re: Brexit negotiations Tue Jan 15 2019, 21:07

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse

T.R.O.Y wrote:She’s just wasted an entire month on this deal. And two years negotiating for a make believe deal. We need leadership who can get a better deal.

And who is that leader?

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