Is there going to be a war?

Think Putin's posturing, and it's worked - the US are at the negotiating table now. 

Truss is using it to bolster her reputation with the Tory nutters who like to pretend we're still a serious player in foreign affairs. Boris is desperate to make this the main topic of conversation for obvious reasons.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:Think Putin's posturing, and it's worked - the US are at the negotiating table now. 

Truss is using it to bolster her reputation with the Tory nutters who like to pretend we're still a serious player in foreign affairs. Boris is desperate to make this the main topic of conversation for obvious reasons.

Of course we’re not a serious player in foreign affairs TROY, we’re just a tiny inconsequential little island off the coast of mighty Europe. Nobody listens to us any more you silly boy.

The answer to the thread however is no, not a chance.

Yes Whites, you’re exactly the sort of fringe nutter I was referring to.

For all those Tories wetting their pants about us still being a global super power (that's you Whites), this must hurt.

1. We're so insignificant Putin's deafed us off.
2. Boris's complete contempt for the truth and following the rules has meant him missing the only opportunity he had to prove he was significant.

Maybe Putin feels emboldened because Brigadier Liz Truss is off with Covid and can't pull her usual sabre rattling?

Pathetic bunch of people leading the country at the worst possible time.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/01/boris-johnson-rebuffed-in-bid-to-play-key-role-in-ukraine-diplomacy

Boris Johnsonovabic must be conflicted.....

“Johnson has been unwilling to deal with the issues in the Russia report or with the Russian money that has gone into the Conservative party. The Kremlin’s influence operations in the UK are well documented, including the prime minister’s personal contacts.” 

No wonder he's pushing a Brexit bill that is straight out of the Kremlin handbook.

wanderlust wrote:Boris Johnsonovabic must be conflicted.....

“Johnson has been unwilling to deal with the issues in the Russia report or with the Russian money that has gone into the Conservative party. The Kremlin’s influence operations in the UK are well documented, including the prime minister’s personal contacts.” 

No wonder he's pushing a Brexit bill that is straight out of the Kremlin handbook.

You're a joke mate...

One minute you are telling us Murdock pulls Boris strings, the next it's Putin...!!!

Just let it go.

You voted for Brexit because you believed what politicians were saying at an election time and have since realised that they weren't exactly telling the truth - well what a surprise that is!!!

You were played like a mug and you've been bitter and hateful about it ever since.

Brexit has happened and as crap as it turns out we have to live with it.

No amount of whining and bitching about it is going to change anything is it?

We've got to make the best of the hand we've dealt ourselves and get on with it.

What else can we do?

Even you've finally accepted the other day that there's no way rejoining the EU in the foreseeable future.

Time for you to grow up and move on.

RAF jets scrambled

Suspected Russian bombers approaching.


Update:

An RAF spokesman said: “Quick Reaction Alert Typhoon fighters based at RAF Lossiemouth supported by a Voyager from RAF Brize Norton were scrambled today against unidentified aircraft approaching the UK area of interest. Subsequently we intercepted and escorted four Russian Bear aircraft.”


The Tupolev Tu-95 (Russian: Туполев Ту-95; NATO reporting name: "Bear") is a large, four-engine turboprop-powered strategic bomber and missile platform.

The more I read about this, the more I believe that there will be a war - but neither the Europeans or the USA will be involved in it.

American analysis is trending towards the idea that the cost of defending the Ukraine's right to independence is not in America's interest.
Already Biden has advised Americans in Ukraine to get out.
The EU leaders are following the Americans - and they don't want trouble with the Russians either.
Boris is the only one still trying to make political capital out of it, and without NATO support he'll wind his neck in soon enough.

Looks like NATO is going to stay out of it, the Russians will annexe Ukraine and there will be some token sanctions for a while - but normal service will be resumed asap.

Putin's brinksmanship seems to have won the day.

Baltic states will be bricking it.

Meanwhile, Russian athletes at the Winter Olympics fail drug tests again. The latest is a wonderful 15 year-old ice skater who would surely have won gold without illegal aid.  Deja vu.

And Spurs' use of the Y word has come to a head.

We need our government to be setting an example in terms of common decency. The opposite is happening.

okocha wrote:Meanwhile, Russian athletes at the Winter Olympics fail drug tests again. The latest is a wonderful 15 year-old ice skater who would surely have won gold without illegal aid.  Deja vu.

And Spurs' use of the Y word has come to a head.

We need our government to be setting an example in terms of common decency. The opposite is happening.

Sadly I’m afraid Russians and drugs doesn’t seem to want to go away Oko? I agree about government setting an example but I’m not sure in this day and age it can be done and be successful. I was watching a Sky interview of Nadhim Zahawi yesterday and thinking what a decent and principled individual he was and then looked at the really good jobs he’s done on education and the vaccine roll out, which really took of when he got involved. Could he be an outside bet for PM if Boris does go? My only concern would be if he’s hard enough for the role but certainly someone like that might restore a little faith in Westminster?

In an interview with the NATO and weapons industry-funded lobby group The Atlantic Council on Wednesday, former British foreign intelligence service chief Sir John Sawers suggests it's more of a propaganda war to control the narrative rather than an intelligence-based assessment of the situation.
Here.

Biden and Putin accept Macron's proposal.

More games.

wanderlust wrote:Biden and Putin accept Macron's proposal.

More games.

You were obviously right Lusty, just can’t trust that cheat. It was pretty clear yesterday when Putin recognised the two regions as Russian and issued passports that they were going to use it as a pretence to move in. Still not out and out war with Ukraine itself but clearly the Ukrainian Government are going to have to react in some way but hopefully cool heads will hold sway. I also hope the West doesn’t go overboard with heavy sanctions too early because that will just inflame the situation. Uneasy times so let’s hope talks continue to limit the reaction.

Saw an interesting speech from the Kenyan ambassador at the UN in support of the Ukraine in which he talked about artificial borders historically enforced by the colonialists which paid no regard to tribal, cultural and religious borders - and yet since independence Kenya has accepted what was imposed on them and moved forward as a nation with a national identity - and that Ukraine should never accept colonialism being reimposed on them.

Check this out:

Very brave of her. Shame the government won't do anything about it as Russians donated £1.83 million to the Tory party this year alone. Naturally the government claimed that they aren't all Putin sympathisers - so the Libdems have suggested that if that is the case, the Tory party hand the money over to Ukrainian civil society groups.

Fwiw I've been reading up a bit on the history of Ukraine - yes I know it's not a sort of a thing that most people do - but I've always thought if you can understand how we got here you have a better chance to see which direction we are heading to.

Ok my source material is Wiki and I guess it isn't guaranteed to be correct but I wouldn't have though anyone would be bothered enough to tell a pack of lies about Ukraine's history a century or more ago?

Well it seems as recently that until a couple of century's ago there really wasn't much to be bothered about in Ukraine, is wasn't occupied much and seemed to just have a nomadic population wandering about it.

It was claimed and fought over by countries such as Lithuania (absolutely miles away to the north) The Ottoman Empire [Think Turkey] (miles to the south across the Black Sea), Poland, Russia and Austria (Hapsburg Empire and all that).

At different times all these countries ruled it (or large chunks of it) and it only really began to form when Russia 'took it on' and its people started to settle there.

Unlike Britain, France, Germany, etc, who built their empires across 'the water' (Australia, New Zealand, Canada, South Africa, Rhodesia, etc) Russia started to expand and colonise the 'land' adjoining it.

They moved into Crimea for instance and we fought a war with Russia to stop then expanding and gaining access to an all year round sea route an influence in the sphere of the world.

Nobody really 'won' the war but Russia seemed to have ended up 'owning' Crimea (this is worth noting for later).

It was because of fears of Russian expansion that we fought our first war in Afghanistan to stop them getting too close to India.

Here's a map of who owned what following Russia moving into the Crimea - as you will see Ukraine simply doesn't exist as such.



The ethnic Ukrainians around that time came from nomads and garrisoned soldiers during the period that most of the area was known as the Wild Fields' -

By the 17th century, the east part of the Wild Fields had been settled by runaway peasants and serfs who made up the core of the Cossackdom.[9] During the Bohdan Khmelnytsky Uprising the north part of this area was settled by Cossacks from the Dnieper basin and came to be known as Sloboda Ukraine. After a series of Russo-Turkish wars waged by Catherine the Great, the area formerly controlled by the Ottomans and the Crimean Tatars was incorporated into the Russian Empire in the 1780s. The Russian Empire built many of the cities in the Wild Fields, including Odessa, Sevastopol, Yekaterinoslav, and Nikolayev. Most of Kyiv was also built during this time. The area was filled with Russian and Ukrainian settlers and the name "Wild Fields" became outdated; it was instead referred as New Russia (Novorossia).[10] According to the Historical Dictionary of Ukraine, "The population consisted of military colonists from hussar and lancer regiments, Ukrainian and Russian peasants, Cossacks, Serbs, Montenegrins, Hungarians, and other foreigners who received land subsidies for settling in the area



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_Fields

Gradually through various wars and treaties over the years Russia took over the area, which took on the name of 'Little Russia' - this map is from 1904 -



After WW1 Russia fell into Civil War eventually won by Lenin.
Ukraine had made an attempt to be independent from Russia but that didn't go anywhere and by 1922 had become a founding member of the USSR.

Under the USSR Ukraine 'grew' in that parts of other 'countries' where incorporated into it including the Crimea from Russia) -



It stayed like that until 1990 when the USSR collapsed and the Ukraine became a country in it's own right.

Since then the country has drifted more towards the west and away from Russia's sphere of influence.

In 2004 Ukraine held a general election between a pro Russian candidate and a pro western one - the pro Russian won - but the election was clearly rigged.

There were large demonstrations held because of the fixing of the result and suddenly the pro western candidate leading the protest was stuck down after being poisoned!  In the end though the pro-western candidate did take charge and began to build bridges to the west.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Revolution

The protestors were greatly helped by the west and in particular the USA and when the next general election was held in 2010 the pro Russian candidate won - but look at the voting pattern on this map - the country was clearly split in half as to who they wanted to win.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Ukrainian_presidential_election

The pro Russian then started to undo all the pro west stuff that had been done and build bridges back to Russia - this led to large scale public protests -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan

Basically this led to the overthrow of the government, Russia taking back the Crimea and these 'independent' enclaves in the Ukraine that Russia has just recognised as independent states.


Note that although we the west have kicked up a fuss about that, we did more or less the same thing when we recognised Kosovo -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo#After_declaration_of_independence


All in all I can understand a bit more of Putin's argument.

Obviously sorting it out with tanks isn't the right way to go about it but it seems that there are parts of the Ukraine whose people do want to be closer to Russia than the west.

I've no idea how things will be figured out in the end but as they say the pen is mightier than the sword (ultimately anyway!).

Tanks and troops moved in overnight so yes there is a war now. Will sanctions against Russia really stop this now? Can't see it myself.