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Should Wanderers’ recent defeats at Cheltenham and Forest Green be viewed in isolation, or were they symptomatic or a wider problem to be addressed within Ian Evatt’s squad?
Reaction to the two results has been suitably acerbic. The jeers and comments directed towards Evatt and his side at the half-time break on Saturday were strong enough to be raised in the post-match conversation, even if the manager joked he felt like joining in at one point.
Some of that anger is fuelled by dented pride. Bolton Wanderers have greater resources and were on a good run going into their Gloucestershire double header, and so their struggle to claim a single point have hit rather unexpectedly.
To deconstruct the Cheltenham performance is almost redundant. With the exception of goalkeeper James Trafford it was hard to find a Bolton player who did themselves justice, nor an area of the team that did not slip below its regular level. And that trend continued at the weekend for at least 45 minutes.
Wanderers had failed to put a shot on target at Whaddon Road but – however upsetting the final result – things did improve in the second half at Forest Green.
Wanderers had nine shots after the break, four of which were blocked and just two on target. That compared to a solitary effort from Dion Charles in the opening 45 minutes, dragged wide from the edge of the penalty area.
Evatt had reacted to the Cheltenham defeat by making four changes. His view on squad rotation has been that the physical demands placed on some players in this 3-4-1-2 system mean it is difficult to keep a team operating at its maximum whilst keeping an unchanged side each week – something he has done just once in 12 games this season.
Critics of rotation say it hinders the team’s ability to sustain momentum of performances and results, and somewhat ironically on Saturday it was the half-time substitution of ever-present, George Johnston, which improved Bolton’s lot.
Jack Iredale’s introduction from the bench improved the flow through the left side of midfield and the quality of delivery into the penalty box, also bringing out a better second-half performance from the advanced wing-back Declan John.
Bolton still emerged empty-handed, however, and one of the main concerns Evatt must have is whether his attack is either potent or prolific enough to sustain the current top six sport.
Charles, along with subs Jon Dadi Bodvarsson and Kieran Sadlier, had clear-cut chances to score at Forest Green, strengthening Evatt’s view that they warranted more than they got.
This xG timeline issued by experimental361.com gave a good visual example of how Bolton’s goal threat was negligible in the first 45 minutes but improved as time went on.
Territorially, Bolton had a significant advantage. They made nearly three times as many accurate passes, and had three times as much possession in the opposition final third but, pertinently, could not turn that into a goal.
Looking over the season so far, Wanderers rank fifth in League One for possession in the opposition penalty area – bettered by Ipswich, Derby, Plymouth and Sheffield Wednesday.
They are 14th, however, in terms of shots per 90 minutes, their 9.97 eclipsed even by strugglers like Burton Albion or Oxford United.
That may point to some over-elaboration close to goal, but more likely that Bolton’s front men are either hesitant to shoot, or not getting into the right positions to test the opposition keeper.
Consider the case of Elias Kachunga, a player whose role in the team has been oft discussed on the terraces this last few months.
Whilst the former Sheffield Wednesday and Huddersfield Town man has strengths elsewhere, not least in his implementation of Evatt’s high press, where he has been among Bolton’s best ball-winners, his attacking returns remain painfully low.
In 11 League One appearances, Kachunga has managed just a single shot on target out of three attempted. Captain, and centre-half, Ricardo Santos has actually managed four times the number of efforts on target, albeit he is yet to break his scoring duck for the club.
According to Wyscout, no other attacking player who has featured 10 times or more for their club this season has returned fewer efforts on goal than Kachunga. Worryingly, Amadou Bakayoko (six shots in 10 appearances) is also placed sixth on the list.
Wanderers’ overall lack of efforts on the opposition goal is even more pronounced when you note that they have one of League One’s most prolific ‘shooters’ in Dapo Afolayan, who averages 3.07 efforts at goal per 90 minutes on the pitch.
Evatt commented recently that he was trying to improve Afolayan’s efficiency close-in on goal, his current rate of 31.25 per cent on target still short of several of his team-mates within the squad and 39th of 59 attacking players who have played 10 times or more in League One, according to Wyscout.
Top scorer Dion Charles boasts a reasonable 2.22 shots per game. Adjusting the stats around the fact he has played in only nine league games this season, he is fifth among his attacking peers in terms of touches in the penalty box (5.05 per game) but lower mid table on metrics such as goal conversion or shots on target per 90 minutes.
Jon Dadi Bodvarsson and Amadou Bakayoko have had less time on the pitch overall than Charles, Afolayan or Kachunga, but both return similarly lo-fi statistics.
Until very recently, goals were being shared out through the team. Wanderers have nine different goalscorers in the league (13 over all competitions), which feels positive until two blank games come along and force folk to look for reasoning.
Bolton’s xG (expected goals) for the season, as ranked by Wyscout, is 15.89 – above their actual total of 13, and ranked 13th of the 24 clubs in League One.
Last season they finished with the sixth highest xG in the division, so with the same cast of strikers at Evatt’s disposal, what has changed?
Some point towards Afolayan’s lack of starts. Though his purple scoring patch had slowed towards the end of last season, when he was moved in field after a change in formation, his high shot-rate does hint at the sense of adventure which had been lacking at Cheltenham and Forest Green.
Others feel that the problem is more one of supply, although the stats do not necessarily back up that view. Only Ipswich, Exeter and Burton play more passes into the final third than Bolton – the latter two in a decidedly more direct fashion. And in the metric known as ‘smart passes’ – i.e. a creative and penetrative pass that breaks the line to gain a significant attacking advantage – Wyscout have Evatt’s side tucked in second place behind Ipswich.
Indeed, in just about any table detailing attacking construction, Wanderers come out quite favourably. So, while their creative juices dried up in their previous two games, their work over the whole season tells a different story.
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Should Wanderers’ recent defeats at Cheltenham and Forest Green be viewed in isolation, or were they symptomatic or a wider problem to be addressed within Ian Evatt’s squad?
Reaction to the two results has been suitably acerbic. The jeers and comments directed towards Evatt and his side at the half-time break on Saturday were strong enough to be raised in the post-match conversation, even if the manager joked he felt like joining in at one point.
Some of that anger is fuelled by dented pride. Bolton Wanderers have greater resources and were on a good run going into their Gloucestershire double header, and so their struggle to claim a single point have hit rather unexpectedly.
To deconstruct the Cheltenham performance is almost redundant. With the exception of goalkeeper James Trafford it was hard to find a Bolton player who did themselves justice, nor an area of the team that did not slip below its regular level. And that trend continued at the weekend for at least 45 minutes.
Wanderers had failed to put a shot on target at Whaddon Road but – however upsetting the final result – things did improve in the second half at Forest Green.
Wanderers had nine shots after the break, four of which were blocked and just two on target. That compared to a solitary effort from Dion Charles in the opening 45 minutes, dragged wide from the edge of the penalty area.
Evatt had reacted to the Cheltenham defeat by making four changes. His view on squad rotation has been that the physical demands placed on some players in this 3-4-1-2 system mean it is difficult to keep a team operating at its maximum whilst keeping an unchanged side each week – something he has done just once in 12 games this season.
Critics of rotation say it hinders the team’s ability to sustain momentum of performances and results, and somewhat ironically on Saturday it was the half-time substitution of ever-present, George Johnston, which improved Bolton’s lot.
Jack Iredale’s introduction from the bench improved the flow through the left side of midfield and the quality of delivery into the penalty box, also bringing out a better second-half performance from the advanced wing-back Declan John.
Bolton still emerged empty-handed, however, and one of the main concerns Evatt must have is whether his attack is either potent or prolific enough to sustain the current top six sport.
Charles, along with subs Jon Dadi Bodvarsson and Kieran Sadlier, had clear-cut chances to score at Forest Green, strengthening Evatt’s view that they warranted more than they got.
This xG timeline issued by experimental361.com gave a good visual example of how Bolton’s goal threat was negligible in the first 45 minutes but improved as time went on.
Territorially, Bolton had a significant advantage. They made nearly three times as many accurate passes, and had three times as much possession in the opposition final third but, pertinently, could not turn that into a goal.
Looking over the season so far, Wanderers rank fifth in League One for possession in the opposition penalty area – bettered by Ipswich, Derby, Plymouth and Sheffield Wednesday.
They are 14th, however, in terms of shots per 90 minutes, their 9.97 eclipsed even by strugglers like Burton Albion or Oxford United.
That may point to some over-elaboration close to goal, but more likely that Bolton’s front men are either hesitant to shoot, or not getting into the right positions to test the opposition keeper.
Consider the case of Elias Kachunga, a player whose role in the team has been oft discussed on the terraces this last few months.
Whilst the former Sheffield Wednesday and Huddersfield Town man has strengths elsewhere, not least in his implementation of Evatt’s high press, where he has been among Bolton’s best ball-winners, his attacking returns remain painfully low.
In 11 League One appearances, Kachunga has managed just a single shot on target out of three attempted. Captain, and centre-half, Ricardo Santos has actually managed four times the number of efforts on target, albeit he is yet to break his scoring duck for the club.
According to Wyscout, no other attacking player who has featured 10 times or more for their club this season has returned fewer efforts on goal than Kachunga. Worryingly, Amadou Bakayoko (six shots in 10 appearances) is also placed sixth on the list.
Wanderers’ overall lack of efforts on the opposition goal is even more pronounced when you note that they have one of League One’s most prolific ‘shooters’ in Dapo Afolayan, who averages 3.07 efforts at goal per 90 minutes on the pitch.
Evatt commented recently that he was trying to improve Afolayan’s efficiency close-in on goal, his current rate of 31.25 per cent on target still short of several of his team-mates within the squad and 39th of 59 attacking players who have played 10 times or more in League One, according to Wyscout.
Top scorer Dion Charles boasts a reasonable 2.22 shots per game. Adjusting the stats around the fact he has played in only nine league games this season, he is fifth among his attacking peers in terms of touches in the penalty box (5.05 per game) but lower mid table on metrics such as goal conversion or shots on target per 90 minutes.
Jon Dadi Bodvarsson and Amadou Bakayoko have had less time on the pitch overall than Charles, Afolayan or Kachunga, but both return similarly lo-fi statistics.
Until very recently, goals were being shared out through the team. Wanderers have nine different goalscorers in the league (13 over all competitions), which feels positive until two blank games come along and force folk to look for reasoning.
Bolton’s xG (expected goals) for the season, as ranked by Wyscout, is 15.89 – above their actual total of 13, and ranked 13th of the 24 clubs in League One.
Last season they finished with the sixth highest xG in the division, so with the same cast of strikers at Evatt’s disposal, what has changed?
Some point towards Afolayan’s lack of starts. Though his purple scoring patch had slowed towards the end of last season, when he was moved in field after a change in formation, his high shot-rate does hint at the sense of adventure which had been lacking at Cheltenham and Forest Green.
Others feel that the problem is more one of supply, although the stats do not necessarily back up that view. Only Ipswich, Exeter and Burton play more passes into the final third than Bolton – the latter two in a decidedly more direct fashion. And in the metric known as ‘smart passes’ – i.e. a creative and penetrative pass that breaks the line to gain a significant attacking advantage – Wyscout have Evatt’s side tucked in second place behind Ipswich.
Indeed, in just about any table detailing attacking construction, Wanderers come out quite favourably. So, while their creative juices dried up in their previous two games, their work over the whole season tells a different story.
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