Brexit negotiations

gloswhite wrote:I think this whole Brexit show is going in the direction most people thought it would,

Really? Your rose tinted spectacles must be working overtime glos.

No XM, I've been looking at an over-arching view, and even with all the kicking and screaming, there's only two outcomes. A no deal, or an acceptable deal. Now that just about everyone realises that we aren't going to stay in the EU, the dust is beginning to settle. We're nowhere near a proper process, never mind outcomes, but we'll get there, because there's no alternative now.

boltonbonce wrote:

At least this will put us all on a proper diet, and save billions for the NHS 

gloswhite wrote:

boltonbonce wrote:

At least this will put us all on a proper diet, and save billions for the NHS 

I agree. We've never been healthier. Nat might struggle to get hold of her favourite chocolate though.
At least until the Yanks arrive.

gloswhite wrote:No XM, I've been looking at an over-arching view, and even with all the kicking and screaming, there's only two outcomes. A no deal, or an acceptable deal. Now that just about everyone realises that we aren't going to stay in the EU, the dust is beginning to settle. We're nowhere near a proper process, never mind outcomes, but we'll get there, because there's no alternative now.

Ah, but there is.....

We can still abandon this disaster simply by reversing the decision to trigger Article 50.

And given the way things are going and to stave off any further damage to the economy, that's the only sensible course of action available.

gloswhite wrote:No XM, I've been looking at an over-arching view, and even with all the kicking and screaming, there's only two outcomes. A no deal, or an acceptable deal. Now that just about everyone realises that we aren't going to stay in the EU, the dust is beginning to settle. We're nowhere near a proper process, never mind outcomes, but we'll get there, because there's no alternative now.

The reason I don't share your optimism is that there is no way that we can walk away with no deal so the two options are a deal acceptable to the brexit loonies or a deal that isn't disastrous for the UK.

I agree that no deal is not in the EU's interest either but the reality is that the brexit extremists like Jacob Rees-Mogg have completely delusional ideas about how the world actually works. May is so weak that she cannot ignore these people and as a consequence she is in a very weak negotiating position.

How's this for a scenario:

Stalemate with the negotiations continues, Tory party infighting worsens, May gets ousted, snap GE called in the Spring, hung parliament (again), Labour / SNP/ Lib Dem coalition takes control after campaigning on a 2nd EU Ref ticket, we apologise to Europe, Article 50 gets reversed and we thus avoid the unnecessary economic disaster which would undoubtedly follow if we had carried on with this lunacy.

Or am I just being too hopeful?

Bread2.0 wrote:

gloswhite wrote:No XM, I've been looking at an over-arching view, and even with all the kicking and screaming, there's only two outcomes. A no deal, or an acceptable deal. Now that just about everyone realises that we aren't going to stay in the EU, the dust is beginning to settle. We're nowhere near a proper process, never mind outcomes, but we'll get there, because there's no alternative now.

Ah, but there is.....

We can still abandon this disaster simply by reversing the decision to trigger Article 50.

And given the way things are going and to stave off any further damage to the economy, that's the only sensible course of action available.

I don't believe there is anything written down about reversing an Article 50 submission, especially as nobody expected one to be put in in the first place. 
As I've said previously, if we , somehow, decide to reverse course, our standing would be so low, and our government, whichever one is in, would be ridiculed for many years to come. I believe the economy will rally, although we may well go through a very bumpy period, but we will come out the other side, (we have no option), able to make our own decisions with regards to whom we deal with, and on what basis. The United Europe road is a cul-de-sac, and will, eventually, play itself out, far sooner than the UK runs out of options.

gloswhite wrote:Breaders, agree with all your points, but even though they didn't instigate it, its too big an issue to ignore, for them as well as us. 

I disagree Glos. It's a huge issue for us for sure and we need to resolve it because just as predicted, every day of uncertainty that passes is damaging our economy and credibility. 

But whilst the pound has crumbled, the euro hasn't. Whilst our industries are suffering, theirs aren't and whilst our main sources of income such as Finance are being drained, theirs are getting a boost from the exodus from London. EU countries continue to grow and keep inflation under control. 

Not having agreement is if anything, boosting their economies so why should they rush when there is no incentive for the EU to do anything?

Just because we painted ourselves into a corner doesn't mean they have to rescue us, especially when they are profiting from our self-inflicted demise.

Bread2.0 wrote:How's this for a scenario:

Stalemate with the negotiations continues, Tory party infighting worsens, May gets ousted, snap GE called in the Spring, hung parliament (again), Labour / SNP/ Lib Dem coalition takes control after campaigning on a 2nd EU Ref ticket, we apologise to Europe, Article 50 gets reversed and we thus avoid the unnecessary economic disaster which would undoubtedly follow if we had carried on with this lunacy.

Or am I just being too hopeful?

Nothing wrong with being hopeful, but  think the chances of all those things happening are vanishingly small.
In particular, . Labour / SNP/ Lib Dem coalition takes control. 
They have as much chance as a fart in a storm. Lets not forget that Labour are working on their third string politicians, after everyone else refused to work with Corbyn, they don't have a clear policy on the EU, (well, they have, but it changes every fortnight), and rumours abound about Emily Thornberry becoming party leader. Need I say more ! 
SNP would immediately ignore everyone, and look after themselves, and the Lib Dems have already shown themselves to be out of touch and incompetent. In short, there would be more in-fighting than there is now.
If there is anyone out there thinking , or relying, on this happening, I would suggest they think again, as their straw is about to break.

Here you go, Glos:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/can-brexit-be-reversed-2017-6

Lord Kerr says we can reverse the decision to leave at any point up to the 2 year deadline from triggering it.

And he should know, he wrote Article 50.

wanderlust wrote:


Just because we painted ourselves into a corner doesn't mean they have to rescue us, especially when they are profiting from our self-inflicted demise.

And there we have the crux of the matter. They are not 'rescuing' us. We don't need rescuing. 
We have stated that we want to leave the union, as it no longer does what the majority of the country wants. They are aware that by letting us go freely, and giving us what we want, then other states will also leave, which amounts to quite a condemnation of where they are heading, and how they manage their business.
As for profiting from our situation, of course they are. Look what they did to Greece, when it was on its knees. There's no love lost on either side, and we have to expect some knocks, but giving up just because it might be hard, isn't in our character, I don't believe.

Bread2.0 wrote:Here you go, Glos:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/can-brexit-be-reversed-2017-6

Lord Kerr says we can reverse the decision to leave at any point up to the 2 year deadline from triggering it.

And he should know, he wrote Article 50.

I remember him saying he didn't know how it would pan out, as he didn't think anyone would leave, and he wrote article 50 accordingly.
It also says that Europe are split on whether this can be done. This has never been raised as a serious argument, although other avenues are always being sought.

Enjoyed these last few exchanges, but got to go now, as I have a massage appointment, and 'yes', it is with a young lady. 

Cheers Boncey - That was the article I was looking for.

Glos - Read the one Boncey's posted, mate.

OK, will do when I come back.

gloswhite wrote:Enjoyed these last few exchanges, but got to go now, as I have a massage appointment, and 'yes', it is with a young lady. 

A likely story.

Well, this has made my mind up:


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41733429