Is Covid now over?

Sluffy wrote:A bit of personal bad news, my daughter tested positive for Covid today.

She tells me she feels fine but does have some cold like symptoms.

She's booked a test tomorrow to confirm the flow test but it does appear she has got it.

I'm sure she'll be fine, she's young and had two jabs, the last being about 3 or 4 months back if that.

I'm guessing she's got the Omicron version, and really only sharing my news to remind people to keep safe and that having  two jabs doesn't mean you can't catch it.

I'm sure she will be fine but I'm upset for her because she feels she's spoilt Christmas for all of us and is feeling down because of that.

She's not but that's how she feels.

Keep safe everyone.

Same situation as me, my girlfriend had a positive PCR yesterday when we were supposed to be driving to my parents that evening.

Will be staying in London now and cancelling plans to fly to Denmark on boxing day.

Pretty shit, but such is this virus. Hope your daughter's okay and you meet up once she's free to again.

boltonbonce wrote:I'm sure she'll be fine. And as for feeling she's spoilt Christmas, her getting well will be the best gift she can give.
There are good times ahead, I'm certain. Stay safe.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:Same situation as me, my girlfriend had a positive PCR yesterday when we were supposed to be driving to my parents that evening.

Will be staying in London now and cancelling plans to fly to Denmark on boxing day.

Pretty shit, but such is this virus. Hope your daughter's okay and you meet up once she's free to again.

Thanks both, I very much appreciate your kind words.

My daughter is very close to her sister (the ex already had a daughter when we got together) and has very much missed her with going to live in London this year, so was really looking forward to a big family get together on both Christmas Day and Boxing Day too - all that is off now due to her testing positive, so she's really upset that she's somehow ruined Christmas for everyone - doesn't ruin mine tbh because even after 20 years now it feels awkward sitting in my old home, with the 'newest' partner of the ex (he's been there about 10 years now) completely ignoring me and the ex clearly wanting me to go to relieve all the tension.

I just stay for a hour to do my duty so to speak, play with the kids of my daughters sister and leave when there's an appropriate moment to do so. I do enjoy seeking my daughters sister again, I've always liked her and its been my blessing to watch her grow up.

What makes it all the more stranger is that on the very rare occasions I've met the bloke without the ex or anyone else being present, he's been really friendly and chatty with me!

I assume he's probably doesn't want to rock the boat with the ex in someway, when she's around?

Fwiw I got on fine with most of her other previous boyfriends and her ex husband even when the ex was there.

Who knows, folk do what they have to do I guess.

Getting back to my daughter though I'm sure she'll be just fine and she'll see her sister over New Year instead, so all's not lost.

Hope your girl friend is fine Troy and sorry to hear your Christmas visit to your mum and dad's and your trip abroad is off.

Hopefully you at least could get to your parents at New Year instead if we aren't on some sort of restrictions by then - which do seem likely to be heading our way.

I plan to have a walk to the ex's to surprise my daughter later today, picking up some chocolates and a bottle of prosecco on the way to attempt to cheer her up a little.

It will mean leaving them on the doorstep and her waving to me from the window but at least I get to see her whilst I can.

It is all a bit shit with Covid but for us at least it's just been an big inconvenience, many people have suffered much worse than that though.

Anyway, everybody stay safe and have the best Christmas you can with your loved ones.

Having had 1 positive PCR test (and since had numerous negative LFTs), she's now had a negative PCR test back - as have I?! Spoken to 111 and still have to isolate, plus can't get a covid pass out of the app so trip to Denmark is definitely off. Might be worth getting your daughter to retest too Sluffy?

T.R.O.Y. wrote:Having had 1 positive PCR test (and since had numerous negative LFTs), she's now had a negative PCR test back - as have I?! Spoken to 111 and still have to isolate, plus can't get a covid pass out of the app so trip to Denmark is definitely off. Might be worth getting your daughter to retest too Sluffy?

Thanks.

I visited her today as a surprise and took her a few treats.
Left the stuff on the door step then retreated back and phoned her.
She came to the door but still spoke on the phone and she told me she'd done her PCR and would find her result tomorrow at the earlist.

I'll tell her about you and your gf and suggest she takes a few more flow tests to see what they show.

She was very happy to see the bottle of prosecco I took her so I guess she isn't feeling that ill!

Hope you and your gf are both feeling well whatever the results are.

Our Christmas is changed now too as my son has tested positive. We were all going there for Christmas Day but we’ll be at home now. Our daughter and granddaughter will now come to us but Mrs Whites isn’t too chuffed at having to cook!! In fairness he doesn’t seem too bad but he had his booster the other day and thought it was the effects of that but has now done the LFT and it’s positive. It’s probably too late for a PCR as well now but I wouldn’t risk Mrs W anyway. Merry Christmas everyone whatever and just enjoy what you can.

I thought this diagram from today was interesting.

Basically it is showing how many positive cases are being recorded daily and bearing in mind that today's number (183,000) is distorted as backdated cases from the Christmas period have been added to it and there was hardly any testing available for the first wave way back in March/April 2020, just look at how the first wave doesn't even register on the chart, and the 'big' wave from last January/Feb is dwarfed what's happening currently!

The good news is though cases are off the chart so to speak, the other two waves led to large numbers of deaths and pressure on the NHS that this wave (at least for now) has not brought.



Goodness knows what the numbers will be when the kids finally return to school and the universities but for now it is 'so far, so good'.

Seems the large number who have been hospitalised haven't been vaccinated / had both jabs (and fwiw, there is still 10% of all people aged 12 or over who still haven't had their first jab).

One of my neighbours is one, believes it is all fake news and he's a big anti-vaccine nutjob.  

I respect his right not to have the jab but I rather he based his choice on facts and not fiction.

Anyway it is what it is.

Keep safe everyone.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59822687

Deaths in the UK is much more encouraging, this is the more important chart.  Thankfully more people contracting COVID doesn’t mean more deaths

Hopefully that will be the case BTID but we aren't at that point yet where we know for sure.

It's all a numbers game really and we don't know what the numbers will turn out to be yet - hence why the government is being so cautious about whether more restrictions will be needed shortly or not.

The first issue is that a rise deaths tend to follow a month or so on from catching Covid, so the Government is inevitably expecting some rise in deaths to happen simply because of the vast numbers being infected in the last two weeks or so leading up to now, in the coming days and weeks ahead.

The second thing is although we now believe it won't be on the same scale as the previous waves - it is inevitable that there will be Covid deaths occurring simply if for no other reason that there are still a number of old and vulnerable people who for whatever reasons have not had their jabs - and who will end up catching Covid this time around.

Hopefully the numbers will be as low as can be hoped for.

The main reason we (England) have yet to move beyond Plan B is that the NHS isn't being swamped so far.

The bench mark it seems is if admissions in London hospitals (London being the epicentre of cases in this wave) exceed 400 admissions a day.  As yet it hasn't.

There are signs that we may have reached the peak in London at the moment - and if so we might not require further measures but we don't know for certain yet.

I get the feeling that we'll hopefully just get away with not moving beyond Plan B but the real test will be what happens following when the kids and students go back to schools and uni's after the holidays.  The wave has yet to fully hit the rest of the country outside London and it is now looking as the north west is the next place it is now hitting the hardest at the moment - the chart below shows the current top 40 English authorities in terms of cases reported over the last seven days and as you can see that the London and district authorities are falling and are being replaced by Greater Manchester areas instead.



Fwiw Bolton is shown at 120th (out of 315 English lower tier authorities) at 1,398 per 100k population.

https://twitter.com/avds/status/1476292908655562756/photo/1

Some doctors are now claiming that the best vaccine is actually catching Omicron so maybe the fact it’s so infectious is more of a blessing than a curse? Let’s hope that’s the case and if the latest S African news is repeated here we should have no more restrictions at all.

Whitesince63 wrote:Some doctors are now claiming that the best vaccine is actually catching Omicron so maybe the fact it’s so infectious is more of a blessing than a curse? Let’s hope that’s the case and if the latest S African news is repeated here we should have no more restrictions at all.

I actually said a similar thing to my daughter before she caught it.

From the start of the pandemic it seemed only the old and/or sick were the ones at real risk and with this 'milder' version infecting everyone I reasoned that if she did get it - and she lives in the middle of London and going out enjoying herself - that with her being double jabbed the odds were strongly in favour of her being ok if she did so.

With Omicron appearing to spread so quickly and infect those with two jabs, I reasoned that she was even more likely to get it now - not that I wished it on her though.

She's now had it and is over it with no ill effects, so I can only assume that it has taught her immune system how to deal with this version of Covid at least for now.

However I'm not sure with my health and age that I would want to catch it, even having had all three jabs.

The problem for the government is a numbers game.

Let me try and explain as follows.

Say in a day with the Delta version which we had going around this time last year for every 100 people catching it, let us say 5 ended up needing to go into hospital - in other words 5%

With Omicron say 1,000 people catch it in a day and only 1% of them need hospital treatment that equates to 10 people.

So even if Omicron is 10 times milder than Delta it is spreading so quickly as to put twice as many people in hospital.

The worry is not that Omicron is more of a 'killer' than Delta was but that it is so infectious that the numbers catching it might simply overwhelm the NHS.

In which case and the numbers start to show that happening then measures will have to be introduced to try to slow the spread down so the NHS can cope.

That's why government are taking it just a few days at a time and have already started to build temporary Nightingale bed capacity again - just in case the NHS needs them.

Just thought these may explain things a little clearer from todays news -

13:49
UK seeing 'astronomical' number of infections - expert

The UK is still seeing very high Covid hospital admissions, despite early evidence suggesting Omicron may be milder than previous variants, the government's former chief scientific adviser says.

Prof Mark Walport tells BBC Radio 4's World at One programme that it is not yet clear whether the wave will break through to older people in the UK.

And with around five million adults in the UK still completely unvaccinated, he says the risk of being admitted to hospital remains for those individuals.

He adds that the "astronomical number of infections" in the UK also poses "terrific challenges" for the workforce, with large numbers isolating.

Posted at 14:45
High chance of catching Covid if you mix - Sturgeon

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says that, with another record tally of 16,857 Covid cases reported in the country today, the "likelihood of getting it just now if you mix with others is high".

She says hospital occupancy figures are just as notable as the cases, with "the largest single day increase in a while".

This is a reminder that even if Omicron causes a lower percentage of people to be hospitalised "sheer volume will still put acute pressure on NHS - and result in serious illness for many".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59825655

Mrs Pig had a positive lateral flow result the other day and went for a PCR this morning. The rest of us are doing latera flows every day and up to now are still negative. She can't believe she's got it as she has been extra careful leading up to Christmas so it just shows how transmissable this new strain is.

I'll be amazed if i don't get it now as well. The numbers off at work are getting much worse i've been told (i'm off work this week).

Norpig wrote:Mrs Pig had a positive lateral flow result the other day and went for a PCR this morning. The rest of us are doing lateral flows every day and up to now are still negative. She can't believe she's got it as she has been extra careful leading up to Christmas so it just shows how transmissible this new strain is.

I'll be amazed if i don't get it now as well. The numbers off at work are getting much worse i've been told (i'm off work this week).

Obviously hope your wife is ok (I can't bring myself to call her Mrs Pig - I'm amazed you do, I bet she's not caught you doing it yet though!) and you and the kids continue to be fine.

If one of the experts is to be believed we can catch it from just a 'whiff of infected breath'...

https://inews.co.uk/news/omicron-covid-variant-spread-whiff-infected-breath-scientist-warning-1376848

...in which case it will only be a matter of time until we all catch it.

I think most of us will be fine in that we are either 'young' (under 65), triple jabbed and/or both.

Might be a bit of a worry for those likes of the vaccine deniers though but then again that was their choice not to!

I wouldn't wish ill on anybody but I'd certainly laugh if the nutjobs like Piers Corbyn happen to come down with it!

It would be one of those end of the piers shows.

Forgive me, it's the last day of the year, and I'm not all here. If I ever was.

Mrs Pig's PCR came back positive but the rest of us still haven't caught it yet.