Economy watch

NickFazer wrote:In the interest of balance it is also worth looking at the performance, or lack of it, across the Eurozone.

The effect of Brexit will not be known until we have actually left and probably not for several years after that, there was bound to be some turbulence after the experts totally misjudged the feeling in the country and got it magnificently wrong, and not for the 1st time either, but compared to the predictions of gloom it has been relatively mild. The pound has taken a hit, that is true, but there are always winners and losers in the money markets and exporters will get a boost, the struggling Eurozone economies would love to devalue, but they can't. There are serious doubts about the Italian banking system, that will probably end up with the Italian government recapitalising them in defiance of the ECB, others such as Deutsche bank are also potential calamities looming on the horizon.

What I can't get my head around is the view that if we had voted for Remain then everything would be rosy, the reality is that the Eurozone has huge problems from sluggish economic growth, outrageously high youth unemployment, a refugee crisis, a failing currency union and institutions that are so hamstrung by their own beaurocracy that they are incapable of reacting to any of it. We may be the first to leave, we should have been second, a managed exit for Greece should of happened 8 years ago, but they chose to keep bailing them out so as not to embarrass their grand project, the IMF have said that Greece will not recover to 2008 levels for 40 years, yes 40, not 4 saddling a nation with a debt so huge there is no possibility of it ever being repaid.

We may have some hard times to come, all economies have them periodically but surely Brexit can't be a worse solution than tying ourselves to a 21st century version of the Hapsburg Empire.

NickFazer wrote:
The effect of Brexit will not be known until we have actually left and probably not for several years after that, there was bound to be some turbulence after the experts totally misjudged the feeling in the country and got it magnificently wrong, and not for the 1st time either, but compared to the predictions of gloom it has been relatively mild.

What I can't get my head around is the view that if we had voted for Remain then everything would be rosy, the reality is that the Eurozone has huge problems from sluggish economic growth, outrageously high youth unemployment, a refugee crisis, a failing currency union and institutions that are so hamstrung by their own beaurocracy that they are incapable of reacting to any of it.

We may have some hard times to come, all economies have them periodically but surely Brexit can't be a worse solution than tying ourselves to a 21st century version of the Hapsburg Empire.

NickFazer wrote:In the interest of balance it is also worth looking at the performance, or lack of it, across the Eurozone.

The effect of Brexit will not be known until we have actually left and probably not for several years after that, there was bound to be some turbulence after the experts totally misjudged the feeling in the country and got it magnificently wrong, and not for the 1st time either, but compared to the predictions of gloom it has been relatively mild. The pound has taken a hit, that is true, but there are always winners and losers in the money markets and exporters will get a boost, the struggling Eurozone economies would love to devalue, but they can't. There are serious doubts about the Italian banking system, that will probably end up with the Italian government recapitalising them in defiance of the ECB, others such as Deutsche bank are also potential calamities looming on the horizon.

What I can't get my head around is the view that if we had voted for Remain then everything would be rosy, the reality is that the Eurozone has huge problems from sluggish economic growth, outrageously high youth unemployment, a refugee crisis, a failing currency union and institutions that are so hamstrung by their own beaurocracy that they are incapable of reacting to any of it. We may be the first to leave, we should have been second, a managed exit for Greece should of happened 8 years ago, but they chose to keep bailing them out so as not to embarrass their grand project, the IMF have said that Greece will not recover to 2008 levels for 40 years, yes 40, not 4 saddling a nation with a debt so huge there is no possibility of it ever being repaid.

We may have some hard times to come, all economies have them periodically but surely Brexit can't be a worse solution than tying ourselves to a 21st century version of the Hapsburg Empire.

 However what fans of Brexit still refuse to accept is that a policy endorsed by Farage, Boris, the Sun and the Daily Mail has to be fundamentally suspect unless you are rich, racist or a tax avoider. Do you really think that people like these give a shit about ordinary people? 

Sluffy wrote:

I read something from the PR person for the Remain campaign (very interesting reading it was too) and at an early point in the campaign they had a brainstorming session and one of the questions they asked themselves was 'What benefits would the general public say they have from being in the EU' - they couldn't come up with a single one!

Their campaign could only come up with benefits to business and that why it was almost totally centred around the economic issues of leaving the EU.

They could not get the public to identify benefits to themselves.

They knew that migration was a major issue to the electorate and they gambled the house that people would rather be better off financially and have migration issues, than be worse off and face the migration issues.

They lost.

Rather than blaming the electorate the question should in my opinion be why even have a referendum in the first place as the only reason it was given was a Conservative internal party struggle to control their EU rebels.

They too gambled on silencing once and for all their Euro-sceptics.

They also lost - and in doing so put us all in this totally unnecessary position.

Great work lads!

okocha wrote:

 However what fans of Brexit still refuse to accept is that a policy endorsed by Farage, Boris, the Sun and the Daily Mail has to be fundamentally suspect unless you are rich, racist or a tax avoider. Do you really think that people like these give a shit about ordinary people? 

.......whereas Cameron, Osborne, Jeremy Hunt, Nicky Morgan, Diane Abbott and Jeremy Clarkson(!!) do???!!!

There were far more issues at stake than just the economy.

If the EU was democratically electable and had shown itself capable of major reform, the result may have been different.

NickFazer wrote:Xmiles the people in those areas came to the conclusion, not entirely incorrectly, that their lives were not going to get any better in or out of the EU, no jobs, poor schools, run down local services and ever greater influx of immigrants. So they voted to give the smug well off a bloody nose and if it made the likes of Richard Branson and Mike Ashley a few million less well off then so much the better.

Globally the wealthy have become richer at an ever increasing rate, in Britain, in Europe and in the USA whilst the general population has seen wages and living standards stagnate, with a good measure of austerity thrown in following the recession in 2008. Multinational companies have profited greatly from cheap labour and at the same time avoided paying their fair share of tax, if these monies were paid by the likes of Amazon and Google (in full) then there would be less need for grants and subsidies.

The increasing gap between rich and poor is more to do with globalisation than the EU, the political class are part of the problem in Westminster as well as Brussels's, so it remains to be seen if a will to create a fairer society in post Brexit Britain exists, I am not holding my breath.

NickFazer wrote:
The increasing gap between rich and poor is more to do with globalisation than the EU, the political class are part of the problem in Westminster as well as Brussels's, so it remains to be seen if a will to create a fairer society in post Brexit Britain exists, I am not holding my breath.

NickFazer wrote:In terms of the economy business will always be attracted to places where it is beneficial for them to be, it is the government's job to create those conditions. The fundamentals of the UK economy are as strong as any in the Eurozone  and we should stop talking down our prospects and look at the opportunities in front of us. We haven't even begun to negotiate any deals yet but already the doom mongers are talking about us having to accept poor deals, this is precisely the sort of attitude that will become a self fulfilling prophecy, if it isn't beneficial to us then don't sign it.

xmiles wrote:

Sluffy wrote:

I read something from the PR person for the Remain campaign (very interesting reading it was too) and at an early point in the campaign they had a brainstorming session and one of the questions they asked themselves was 'What benefits would the general public say they have from being in the EU' - they couldn't come up with a single one!

Their campaign could only come up with benefits to business and that why it was almost totally centred around the economic issues of leaving the EU.

They could not get the public to identify benefits to themselves.

They knew that migration was a major issue to the electorate and they gambled the house that people would rather be better off financially and have migration issues, than be worse off and face the migration issues.

They lost.

Rather than blaming the electorate the question should in my opinion be why even have a referendum in the first place as the only reason it was given was a Conservative internal party struggle to control their EU rebels.

They too gambled on silencing once and for all their Euro-sceptics.

They also lost - and in doing so put us all in this totally unnecessary position.

Great work lads!

I would be interested in learning the source for the idea that "what benefits would the general public say they have from being in the EU - they couldn't come up with a single one!". I find this hard to believe. I know the Tories relied on Project Fear (it worked on the Scots) and Corbyn effectively sabotaged the Labour side but Sturgeon did empasise the positive benefits of EU membership. There is plenty of evidence out there as a simple internet search will reveal but one of the obvious ones is the level of subsidy received in the poorer areas of the country. Bizarrely the leave vote was strongest in the regions most economically dependent on the EU.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwj3p9vE9q7OAhViL8AKHRV0DhcQFghDMAY&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmetro.co.uk%2F2016%2F06%2F25%2Fregions-with-the-biggest-leave-votes-are-most-economically-dependent-on-the-eu-5966531%2F&usg=AFQjCNFbdjIL50zM7R6xs68xBg11UnhxrA&sig2=yar_OxcMVXUX7rQBpBT4nQ

Note how high Lancashire is on this list. Dream on if you think a Tory government is going to match those grants.

• Confidence - and therefore increased value - in the British economy whilst we are part of a European bloc that is far better equipped to fight off the rising challenge of the big two economies.
  
• Political stability in the European region in the nuclear age
  
• Voting rights including the veto over any country - including Turkey - from joining
  
• Scientific, medical and judicial joint ventures 
  
• Military support and the future option to create a European army that would reduce the cost to Britain and risk to British soldiers substantially
  
• A seat at the table to ensure Britain's interests are maintained in cross border issues such as immigration.
  
• Pre-negotiated advantageous trade deals with zero tariffs, substantially reduced "red tape" for British companies (who will now have to negotiate 27 deals and produce 27 sets of documentation)