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Coronavirus - will we survive?

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901Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sat Jul 17 2021, 15:09

Cajunboy

Cajunboy
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf
Glad to hear you are all out of isolation, I hope you all stay fit and well now.

I spent 48 hours in Blackpool Victoria about ten days a ago for all the fun of a colonoscopy. I'm nearing the end of 14 days of isolation, which is no big deal for me as I've been shielding for about 16months apart from hospital visits and picnics in the car with my wife.

The end of all this still seems a long way away.

902Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sat Jul 17 2021, 16:52

gloswhite

gloswhite
Guðni Bergsson
Guðni Bergsson
Keep your pecker up Cajun, we'll get there. Not long now.

903Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sat Jul 17 2021, 17:03

Cajunboy

Cajunboy
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf
Don't be silly.

904Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sat Jul 17 2021, 17:06

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@Norpig wrote:The Norpig family are now out of isolation thank God! Not been on much this last couple of weeks as work has been horrendous. They had me working from home last week and actually sent home my pc from work to use at home!

We were meant to be going to Prestatyn next Monday but cancelled it as Haven are only letting people book the evening entertainment venue for 1 night of your 7 day stay! So fed up of covid now!

Good to have you back Norpig. Sorry to hear about your holiday.

You've missed nowt on here as it's been dead, in fact a new record was created one day this week when there was only ONE post in a 24 hour period.

You'll be pleased to know it's likely Bob will soon be posting more often as his time on The Wanderer appears to be coming to an end.

905Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sat Jul 17 2021, 17:08

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@Cajunboy wrote:Glad to hear you are all out of isolation, I hope you all stay fit and well now.

I spent 48 hours in Blackpool Victoria about ten days a ago for all the fun of a colonoscopy. I'm nearing the end of 14 days of isolation, which is no big deal for me as I've been shielding for about 16months apart from hospital visits and picnics in the car with my wife.

The end of all this still seems a long way away.

Don't know what to say Cajun, but that sounds pretty shitty. I agree the end seems an awful long way off, I can see nothing but disaster on the horizon.

906Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sat Jul 17 2021, 20:52

gloswhite

gloswhite
Guðni Bergsson
Guðni Bergsson
@Cajunboy wrote:Don't be silly.
Pecker problems, can't be fun  Very Happy

907Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sat Jul 17 2021, 22:12

Sluffy

Sluffy
Admin
Yes, pleased you and your family have come through it Norpig, yes sorry to hear how life has been for you Cajun and yes I think we are still far from the end Natasha (and yes it has been deathly quite on here recently).

The two things that intrigue me at the moment with Covid are the recent u-turn on France and the daily number of positive cases.

The France u-turn (if I understand it correctly?) is because of the fear of importing the South Africa/beat variant.

Now my understanding is that the vaccines work well against all the variants we've be told about so far, and as far as I can understand it the Indian/Delta variant is a faster spreader than the South African version.

So if we already have the 'worst' of the two variants anyway then why be particularly keen to keep the other out?

There's something I'm clearly not understanding about this?

As for the number of positive cases, it isn't that people are catching the virus that is my particular concern but more to do with how they know it is that high (or so few) - depending on how you look at that number?

What I mean is I can imagine people ill with the virus will be known about and people who have the test done in centres or by surge testing in the community will also be known about but how many people do the home testing and how many of them even if they are shown to be positive would bother to phone that information in?

Many round my way have never been arsed about following any of the rules so I'd be amazed if many have been doing the home testing and then reporting they had caught it!

I just can't see the number being true as such.

I'm not saying the governments fiddled it or anything, I just can't see 50,000 people each day (at present) honest enough to report they've caught it - and conversely if there really are 50,000 people honestly doing so then their must be five, ten, twenty, fifty, whatever the number more, not holding their hand up to it.

And if all the rules are scrapped on Monday, then what exactly is the point to continue to surge test any future area?  We've seem to have hit a brick wall at around 10% of the population not intending to get a jab (let alone both of them) and many of them seem to be in the 18 to 25 age group (largely males!) who are most likely to be the nobheads most likely to continue to catch it and spread it.

My view fwiw, until this hardcore of the 10% of the population in the UK go through giving the virus to each other and building up immunity to it in that way then not much will change anytime soon for the folk like Cajun who has had to lock himself away for his own safety for the best part of the last two years.

And fwiw, we may have to go through all this again each and every year as the virus mutates and we have to get our booster jabs - and the 10% of the population again can't be arsed getting one this time either!

I think there is a little bit of naivety if folk think all this will be over in time for Christmas!

Hope I'm wrong though.

908Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sat Jul 17 2021, 22:25

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@Sluffy wrote:Yes, pleased you and your family have come through it Norpig, yes sorry to hear how life has been for you Cajun and yes I think we are still far from the end Natasha (and yes it has been deathly quite on here recently).


I don't want it to be the end. Hopefully things will pick up when the new season gets going. I was going to do the 'Betting Shop' but not sure there are going to be enough punters.

909Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sat Jul 17 2021, 22:30

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@Sluffy wrote:I'm not saying the governments fiddled it or anything, I just can't see 50,000 people each day (at present) honest enough to report they've caught it - and conversely if there really are 50,000 people honestly doing so then their must be five, ten, twenty, fifty, whatever the number more, not holding their hand up to it.


I'm guessing, but I'd be surprised if a good number of those 50,000 aren't school kids where most positive tests will be recorded.

910Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sat Jul 17 2021, 23:47

Sluffy

Sluffy
Admin
@Natasha Whittam wrote:
@Sluffy wrote:I'm not saying the governments fiddled it or anything, I just can't see 50,000 people each day (at present) honest enough to report they've caught it - and conversely if there really are 50,000 people honestly doing so then their must be five, ten, twenty, fifty, whatever the number more, not holding their hand up to it.


I'm guessing, but I'd be surprised if a good number of those 50,000 aren't school kids where most positive tests will be recorded.

Yes I thought that may well have something to do with it but I didn't know what the process was?

I thought when they started to first test kids they did so in school but that changed to mums and dads doing them at home with the flow kits?

If so how many of them now even give flow tests to the kids and if so how many phone the results in and get them properly tested?

If it is from school testings the number will soon massively drop as the kids finish for the summer break.

Presumably the kids won't need testing either at home or school when they go back from Monday onwards?

Either way the number that really matters is the number of people in hospital because of Covid.  (Well the number that matters for those who are probably not going to die if they catch it - unlike some!).

Fwiw as at the 15th June there were 1,229 in hospital (10,507 new cases reported) and at the 15th July (being the most up to date record) 3,964.

On the 15th July there were a 48,553 positive new cases reported - the last, nearest total to that occurred on the 12th January (a week or so after the peak of the last wave) when 49,374 positive new cases were reported - so matching the two dates as a 'like for like' comparison, the total of people in hospital for that date was 36,981.

So although the number of new cases went up five fold in a month 10,507 to 48,553, the number of people in hospital only went up three fold 1,229 to 3,964 - and if you compared the 3,964 in hospital based on the 48,553 new cases on the most recent date we have details for (15th July), then that is something like ten fold LESS than the last comparable date (12th Jan) when 36,981 were in hospital from 49,374 reported new cases that day.

I'm not claiming this to be scientific analysis from me but on the face of it at least the vaccine seems to have had a significant effect on keeping hospitalisation down.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

However the government site shows that 88% of the population (I don't know if the includes or excludes kids under 18 years of age?) amounting to 46.35m people have had their first jab - so that means the population total the government is working to is 52,670,00 or there about - meaning there are something like 6 million who have had no jab at all.

From what I can tell, the Office of National Statistics state the UK population mid 2019 to be 66.8m

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/january2021

So it looks to me that kids are not counted in the jabs totals and in fact there is something like 20,000,000 (66.8m - 46.35m) still able to catch and pass on Covid.

The more I think about this the more I don't think this will be over for years to come yet unfortunately and as always the old and weak will have to suffer the brunt of it.

Stay safe everyone.

911Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Sun Jul 18 2021, 08:44

Ten Bobsworth


Andy Walker
Andy Walker
@Natasha Whittam wrote:

Good to have you back Norpig. Sorry to hear about your holiday.

You've missed nowt on here as it's been dead, in fact a new record was created one day this week when there was only ONE post in a 24 hour period.

You'll be pleased to know it's likely Bob will soon be posting more often as his time on The Wanderer appears to be coming to an end.
 There's a few TWE*PS sufferers on there too, Nat. You could call it The Wanderer variant but there's still no vaccine for it yet.

912Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Mon Jul 19 2021, 08:19

Norpig

Norpig
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@Natasha Whittam wrote:

I don't want it to be the end. Hopefully things will pick up when the new season gets going. I was going to do the 'Betting Shop' but not sure there are going to be enough punters.
I'm back and will post when i can but work is a bastard at the moment and my skiving time has massively reduced  Very Happy

Please do the betting shop again Nat and i'll do the last man standing again.

913Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Mon Jul 19 2021, 09:38

Natasha Whittam

Natasha Whittam
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@Norpig wrote:Please do the betting shop again Nat and i'll do the last man standing again.

I hope you've spent your time in isolation improving your maths.

914Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Mon Jul 19 2021, 13:27

Norpig

Norpig
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@Natasha Whittam wrote:

I hope you've spent your time in isolation improving your maths.
 Nope  Very Happy

915Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Mon Jul 19 2021, 13:37

boltonbonce

boltonbonce
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Perhaps the great broadcaster Alastair Cook had it right, many years ago, when he said,

'In the best of times, our days are numbered anyway. So it would be a crime against nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were designed in the first place: the opportunity to do good work, to enjoy friends, to fall in love, to hit a ball, and to bounce a baby'.

916Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Mon Jul 19 2021, 15:12

Cajunboy

Cajunboy
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf
@gloswhite wrote:
Pecker problems, can't be fun  Very Happy
LOL.

Thanks, that made me laugh.

917Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Mon Jul 19 2021, 15:14

Cajunboy

Cajunboy
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf
@boltonbonce wrote:Perhaps the great broadcaster Alastair Cook had it right, many years ago, when he said,

'In the best of times, our days are numbered anyway. So it would be a crime against nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were designed in the first place: the opportunity to do good work, to enjoy friends, to fall in love, to hit a ball, and to bounce a baby'.
I've just been arrested for bouncing a baby in Cleveleys.

Stupid kid kept screaming at me.

Look out for for me on News North West.

918Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Mon Jul 19 2021, 16:00

boltonbonce

boltonbonce
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@Cajunboy wrote:
I've just been arrested for bouncing a baby in Cleveleys.

Stupid kid kept screaming at me.

Look out for for me on News North West.
Bad move. You should know by now that babies don't bounce. The do go well on a highly polished floor. Excellent for baby bowls.
Incidentally, I hope you'll be watching Panorama at 8.30 tonight.

919Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Mon Jul 19 2021, 16:13

Sluffy

Sluffy
Admin
@boltonbonce wrote:Incidentally, I hope you'll be watching Panorama at 8.30 tonight.



Great film if you haven't seen it before.

Can't say I will like the documentary tonight though...

920Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Mon Jul 19 2021, 16:18

Cajunboy

Cajunboy
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf
@boltonbonce wrote:
Bad move. You should know by now that babies don't bounce. The do go well on a highly polished floor. Excellent for baby bowls.
Incidentally, I hope you'll be watching Panorama at 8.30 tonight.
Yes I will, I've just been reading about the Panorama prog tonight on the BBC home page.

921Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Mon Jul 19 2021, 16:18

boltonbonce

boltonbonce
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
I have a list of well known movies I've yet to see, and that's on it. Along with The Sound Of Music.

I'll probably get around to them eventually.

922Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Mon Jul 19 2021, 16:24

boltonbonce

boltonbonce
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@Cajunboy wrote:
Yes I will, I've just been reading about the Panorama prog tonight on the BBC home page.
Will be a tough watch. But if it brings about real change, it's worth it.

923Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Mon Jul 19 2021, 16:43

Cajunboy

Cajunboy
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf
Yes it will be gut wrenching and makes me feel guilty in a strange way.  My wife loves horses, having ridden when she was younger and is very knowledgeable about them. She  has one share in each of four horses and loves  following them .

924Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Mon Jul 19 2021, 18:44

okocha

okocha
El Hadji Diouf
El Hadji Diouf
Never seen It's a Wonderful Life. Recommended or not?

925Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Mon Jul 19 2021, 19:55

Sluffy

Sluffy
Admin
I preferred 'Harvey' myself!

Anyway back on thread.

You've got to laugh really.

Lockdown is over, people can go to nightclubs - not social distance, wear masks, not having to stay in bubbles or anything!

Yippee (well if I was forty years younger I might have said that - I'm a lot too old to be clubbing it these days!)

But wait...

By the end of SEPTEMBER the government is going to introduce legislation where you can only enter clubs if you've had both your jabs!

So you can go out and freely catch Covid in the nightclubs for the next two and a half months until they become 'safe' from it by introducing entry to those who have had two jabs only!!!

Hahaha

What a joke.

Fwiw it looks to me is the plan is for all the youngsters - who lets be honest are the ones must likely to catch it and pass it on by their behaviour and lack of consideration to most anyone else - and build up herd immunity as quickly as possible before the cold weather forces everyone back inside again.

Seems a big gamble so let us hope they've got it right!

For the record only 34,000 first jabs were given yesterday - so it looks as though the youngsters and the determined old refuseniks in the remaining 6m or so 18 years and older population still to have their first jab certainly aren't rushing to get one!

And the more that aren't jabbed, the more chance Covid has of spreading!

926Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Mon Jul 19 2021, 20:38

boltonbonce

boltonbonce
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
@okocha wrote:Never seen It's a Wonderful Life. Recommended or not?
Best feelgood film ever. Get it watched. Harvey is brilliant too.

927Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Tue Jul 20 2021, 13:21

Sluffy

Sluffy
Admin
Thought this was interesting -

11:09
Hospitalisation figures show vaccine effectiveness

Reports of vaccinated people ending up in hospital causes alarm.

On Monday, chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance revealed that around 60% of hospitalisations were among people who are unvaccinated.

So that means for every 60 unvaccinated people hospitalised, about 40 who have been vaccinated are also ending up in hospital. Does that mean the vaccines are not working very well? Absolutely not.

That’s because for every 60 unvaccinated people, there are about 440 vaccinated adults in the population.

So that means the numbers of vaccinated people in hospital are at least 10 times lower than they would be if the vaccines did not work at all.

The 60:40 ratio therefore suggests the vaccines are a little over 90% effective at keeping people out of hospital.

But the news is even better than that. The figures are skewed by the fact the people who are most likely to be unvaccinated are the younger age groups - the ones least likely to end up in hospital.

If you factor that in the vaccines look to be well above 90% effective at keeping people out of hospital – bang in line with what all the research suggests.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57898328

928Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 21 2021, 21:05

BoltonTillIDie

BoltonTillIDie
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
Question: if someone tests positive and then a few days later someone else in the household tests positive, how long do you need to see isolate for. From when the first person tested positive or from when the additional person tested positive?

Can’t seem to find the answer to this.

929Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 21 2021, 21:22

Sluffy

Sluffy
Admin
@BoltonTillIDie wrote:Question:  if someone tests positive and then a few days later someone else in the household tests positive, how long do you need to see isolate for.  From when the first person tested positive or from when the additional person tested positive?

Can’t seem to find the answer to this.

The way I read this it looks to me it is 10 days from when the second person is tested positive -

If someone you live with has tested positive

How long you need to self-isolate
If someone you live with tests positive, your self-isolation period includes the day their symptoms started (or the day they had the test, if they do not have symptoms) and the next 10 full days.

When to stop self-isolating
You can stop self-isolating after the 10 days if you do not get any symptoms.

What to do if you get symptoms
Get PCR a test to check if you have COVID-19 on GOV.UK if you get symptoms while you're self-isolating.

If your test is negative, keep self-isolating for the rest of the 10 days.

If your test is positive, the 10 days restarts from the day after your symptoms started. This will mean you're self-isolating for more than 10 days overall.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-and-treatment/how-long-to-self-isolate/

HOWEVER

At the bottom of the page it is date stamped as follows -

Page last reviewed: 8 July 2021
Next review due: 22 July 2021

It might be worth looking at this again tomorrow as it possibly may change - I suspect it won't but you never know!

930Coronavirus - will we survive? - Page 31 Empty Re: Coronavirus - will we survive? Wed Jul 21 2021, 21:26

BoltonTillIDie

BoltonTillIDie
Nat Lofthouse
Nat Lofthouse
But this also doesn’t take into account if you already have COVID

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