@Natasha Whittam wrote:
I'm not saying the governments fiddled it or anything, I just can't see 50,000 people each day (at present) honest enough to report they've caught it - and conversely if there really are 50,000 people honestly doing so then their must be five, ten, twenty, fifty, whatever the number more, not holding their hand up to it.
I'm guessing, but I'd be surprised if a good number of those 50,000 aren't school kids where most positive tests will be recorded.
Yes I thought that may well have something to do with it but I didn't know what the process was?
I thought when they started to first test kids they did so in school but that changed to mums and dads doing them at home with the flow kits?
If so how many of them now even give flow tests to the kids and if so how many phone the results in and get them properly tested?
If it is from school testings the number will soon massively drop as the kids finish for the summer break.
Presumably the kids won't need testing either at home or school when they go back from Monday onwards?
Either way the number that really matters is the number of people in hospital because of Covid. (Well the number that matters for those who are probably not going to die if they catch it - unlike some!).
Fwiw as at the 15th June
there were 1,229
in hospital (10,507
new cases reported) and at the 15th July
(being the most up to date record) 3,964
On the 15th July
there were a 48,553
positive new cases reported - the last, nearest total to that occurred on the 12th January
(a week or so after the peak of the last wave) when 49,374
positive new cases were reported - so matching the two dates as a 'like for like' comparison, the total of people in hospital for that date was 36,981
So although the number of new cases went up five fold in a month 10,507
, the number of people in hospital only went up three fold 1,229
- and if you compared the 3,964
in hospital based on the 48,553
new cases on the most recent date we have details for (15th July
), then that is something like ten fold LESS
than the last comparable date (12th Jan
) when 36,981
were in hospital from 49,374
reported new cases that day.
I'm not claiming this to be scientific analysis from me but on the face of it at least the vaccine seems to have had a significant effect on keeping hospitalisation down.https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
However the government site shows that 88% of the population (I don't know if the includes or excludes kids under 18 years of age?) amounting to 46.35m people have had their first jab - so that means the population total the government is working to is 52,670,00 or there about - meaning there are something like 6 million who have had no jab at all.
From what I can tell, the Office of National Statistics state the UK population mid 2019 to be 66.8mhttps://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/january2021
So it looks to me that kids are not counted in the jabs totals and in fact there is something like 20,000,000 (66.8m - 46.35m) still able to catch and pass on Covid.
The more I think about this the more I don't think this will be over for years to come yet unfortunately and as always the old and weak will have to suffer the brunt of it.
Stay safe everyone.