Is there going to be a war?

Nothing official but there are reports coming in of a big counterattack in Kherson Oblast.

This place is in a completely separate part of the country to the Lyman area, which Ukraine seems to be achieving great success in at the moment.

Kherson Oblast is a big thing to the Ukraine's as Kherson city is the only regional centre that Russia has captured since the war began and it is the gateway to the Crimea.

In political terms the recapture of Kherson City would be a big, big thing for Ukraine and a massive failure for Russia.

For anyone interested, the link below is to a rather lengthy article written by the Yale Professor (I've mentioned on this thread several times before) on ONE of the ways the war will end...

...and it is good news for all of us that it won't be by a nuclear war - at least not for now!

Certainly worth a read if you like this sort of stuff.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war?utm_campaign=auto_share

A follow on to my post above - this happened today...

Prigozhin = Putin's Chef = Wagner (private army)

Shoigu = Putin's head of the 'official' army

It definitely seems that there is a power struggle going hot within the Russian govt/elite right now, centered on Sergei Shoigu, the minister of defence, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Wagner Group. https://t.co/cM2lW4ynH6

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) October 5, 2022

However, Washington's analysis looks at it from another angle...

Increasing domestic critiques of Russia’s “partial mobilization” are likely driving Putin to scapegoat the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and specifically Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Putin deferred mobilization for all students, including part-time and masters students, via a decree on October 5.[13] Putin told Russian outlets that because “the Ministry of Defense did not make timely changes to the legal framework on the list of those who are not subject to mobilization, adjustments have to be made.”[14] That direct critique of the MoD is also an implicit critique of Shoigu, whom Putin appears to be setting up to take the fall for the failures of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The chairperson of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee, Colonel General (Ret.) Andrey Kartapolov, also criticized the MoD on Russian state television on October 5. Kartapolov said that all Russians know the MoD is lying and must stop, but that message is not reaching “individual leaders,” another jab at Shoigu.[15] One Russian milblogger claimed that Kartapolov’s comments demonstrate that Shoigu will soon be “demolished” and “recognized as the main culprit” of Russia’s military failures. The milblogger reminded his readers that it was the Russian MoD and its head that made an “invaluable and huge contribution to the fact that we are now on the verge of a military-political catastrophe.”[16] Another milblogger defended Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen head Ramzan Kadyrov* for criticizing the MoD, applauding them for driving necessary change.[17] Kadyrov’s announcement that Putin awarded him the rank of Colonel-General is similarly indicative that Putin is willing to appease the siloviki base that has taken continued rhetorical swings at the MoD establishment.

Putin will likely hold off on firing Shoigu for as long as he feels he can in order to continue to blame Shoigu for ongoing military failures and to build up support among other factions. Shoigu’s replacement will need to take responsibility for failures that occur after his tenure begins. Putin is already working to improve his support among the nationalist milbloggers and the siloviki such as Prigozhin and Kadyrov. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov old reporters on October 5 that Prigozhin “makes a great contribution within his capabilities” to efforts in Russia and Ukraine and declined to answer questions surrounding Prigozhin’s critiques of government officials.[18] A milblogger emphasized on October 5 that Putin “regularly hosts military correspondents, carefully reads their reports, asks the right questions, and receives objective answers,” implicitly contrasting that relationship with the dishonest way in which milbloggers believe the MoD interacts with Putin.[19]

Russian authorities detained the manager of several milblogger telegram channels on October 5, indicating that the Kremlin is likely setting limits on what criticism is allowed in the domestic Russian information space. Alexander Khunshtein, the deputy secretary of the General Council of Putin’s political party, United Russia, published footage on October 5 showing Russian authorities detaining Alexei Slobodenyuk.[20] Slobodenyuk is an employee of Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Patriot media group and the manager of several milblogger telegrams, the most prominent of which are “Release Z Kraken” and “Skaner.” The telegram channel “Skaner” has featured criticism of major state officials and military personnel, the most prominent of whom are Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. Russian authorities detained Slobodenyuk on accusations of fraud. His detention suggests that the Kremlin is attempting to set boundaries for which criticism is allowed in the information space and on which high-ranking officials milbloggers and journalists can criticize—Defense Minister Shoigu, Putin‘s likely scapegoat-in-waiting, now appears to be fair game, whereas officials close to Putin such as Lavrov and Putin’s spokesperson are off-limits.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-5

*Warlord with own private army.

BIG news this morning - the Kerch Bridge has been badly damaged.

This is MASSIVE in many ways.

Anyway first the pictures -

Up close video of the damage, which I found on Nevzorov's Telegram channel, but apparently was first on VK. pic.twitter.com/nPZiTgJ86C

— Insomnia's Binary Box of Factoids. (@KraftTea) October 8, 2022

The bridge was built after Crimea was taken in 2014 and gave the only link from Russia to Crimea - that has changed since the start of the war in that the Russians have occupied some of Ukraine to form a land bridge to it now as well.

The bridge is Russia's pride and joy and was thought untouchable.

It is used as THE supply line for military equipment to be shipped by train and road to the Crimean war front.

Crimea is the jewel in the crown of Russia's annexation of Ukraine.

The ramifications of damaging the bridge could be massive - not least how Russia responds (nuclear bomb?) if at all?

My first thoughts fwiw is that the US has done this to make clear to Russia what they are capable of IF Russia decided to use nuclear or other types of dirty weapons on the battlefield.

Will be crucial how Russia deals with this at home - will the penny drop with them - or will they do something really, really stupid?

Russia saying it was a truck that exploded.

Could a truck do the damage that has occurred AND just happen to explode at the same time a train carrying petrol (or something inflammatory) was passing...?

I don't know, I'm no expert but it seems to me unlikely.

The moment of the explosion on the Crimean bridge this morning!

Videos are published by local media, a late gift for Putin's birthday. pic.twitter.com/XPr3aD0PHM

— ТРУХАEnglish (@TpyxaNews) October 8, 2022

The head on video of the truck on the bridge would imply a suicide bomber with impeccable timing and considerable luck. No chance.

Theories abound but pro sappers reckon it was most likely done from below rather than a missile and that it would take considerable planning and execution.

Looking forward to seeing what Russian state telly make of it.

SKY offering some worrying Analysis

Just to wind Putin up even more the Ukrainian postal service have announced they’re issuing a commemorative stamp. Here

Yes, as I've been saying for quite a while, since the war started (and particularly since it started going against Russia) - we are entering scary times.

Will he use the bomb (or other dirty weapons) or not.

Commonsense says he won't but Russia has done nothing like commonsense since starting this stupid war.

The mindset at the top is nationalism, if Putin falls then those who follow are the ones screaming for the nuking of Kyiv!

We really could do with China telling them if they do that, then all relationships with them are over and America can do what they please with them.

Putin seems to be setting up the army for the blame and cosying up to Wagner and Kadyrov - both of whom are basically warlords with their own private armies.

I'm really not sure what the Russian army have got left to start an overthrow and seek peace - even if they wanted to.

We can only wait as to what Putin does next in response of the attack on the bridge - both on the battlefield and to shore his own position up in the Kremlin.

Scary times indeed.

BrIdge already partially open to light traffic and supply trains. 
Maybe a bit premature with that stamp?

It’s escalating- Suruvikin has been given control. Bad news here

The reality on the ground is pretty brutal.

In response to the Kremlin threatening world war 3, Macron has stated he won’t nuke Russia even if the Russians nuke Ukraine which somewhat weakens the deterrent.

Instead, he’s sending them French tanks which uniquely have 3 reverse gears and one forward gear in case they get attacked from behind

One aspect of the war which seems to have been under reported  in the western media is what appears to be almost an ethnic cleansing exercise in Russian mobilisation strategy with a hugely disproportionate call up from ethnic minority areas, especially Muslims to be sent to Ukraine.
Dispute between army regulars and Muslim recruits has been blamed on the shooting incident at the Russian trading camp where 14 soldiers were shot.
LGBTQs have also been targeted for mobilisation as well as prisoners including political prisoners.

The core ethnic Russian population- and especially the middle class have more or less been exempt from sending their kids to the frontline.

It comes across as a very deliberate strategy.

The west ought to be picking up on this as the targeting of Muslims may provide issues for some of the SCOs smaller member/affiliate  states like Turkey, Pakistan And Turkmenistan some of which are strategically important in the world’s largest trading and military bloc.

Calls for Ukraine to just hand over the annexed regions to Russia which have been coming from right wing movements in the USA and parts of Europe notably Italy’s Fascist party are being spun into a call for peace and are starting to get traction.
The Pope is apparently now on board as ending the war is his priority and the pressure on Biden is being ramped as the Halliburton’s of this world are eager to get hold of those massive infrastructure rebuilding contracts that will inevitably follow.
But the arms manufacturers will have to be given their turn at the trough first - it’s a matter of when the line is drawn.
Zelenskyy will undoubtedly be privy to a few conversations on this but maybe he’ll be given a bit more time to make  ground before he’s pressured into negotiating?
Either way, there are signs that the narrative is starting to shift.

wanderlust wrote:Calls for Ukraine to just hand over the annexed regions to Russia which have been coming from right wing movements in the USA and parts of Europe notably Italy’s Fascist party are being spun into a call for peace and are starting to get traction.
The Pope is apparently now on board as ending the war is his priority and the pressure on Biden is being ramped as the Halliburton’s of this world are eager to get hold of those massive infrastructure rebuilding contracts that will inevitably follow.
But the arms manufacturers will have to be given their turn at the trough first - it’s a matter of when the line is drawn.
Zelenskyy will undoubtedly be privy to a few conversations on this but maybe he’ll be given a bit more time to make  ground before he’s pressured into negotiating?
Either way, there are signs that the narrative is starting to shift.

That's all social media bollocks mate.

The war will continue as it is well into next year.

Expect Ukraine to impose another politically crushing defeat on Russia in the Kherson region in the coming weeks.

Kherson could go very shortly which will affect the starting negotiation positions if anything can be read into Surovikin’s statement on Russiya 24 and it won’t be politically crushing in Russia as they’re already laying the groundwork so it’s expected. When it happens the right will call for upping the ante which will lead to escalating attacks and bringing negotiations even closer IMO

Meanwhile Putin has ordered evacuation of Kherson and has declared martial law throughout the annexed territories thereby removing the pretence of the puppet governors.

It seems that the Ukrainians believe they’ve got Russia on the run so why would they want to settle now and give territory away? There will have to be a negotiated settlement at some point but I don’t see it happening yet and maybe not even until they’ve reclaimed all territory, including Crimea?

Whitesince63 wrote:It seems that the Ukrainians believe they’ve got Russia on the run so why would they want to settle now and give territory away? There will have to be a negotiated settlement at some point but I don’t see it happening yet and maybe not even until they’ve reclaimed all territory, including Crimea?

Sometimes evacuation can signal escalation and there’s no way Putin will back down or let Ukraine win.

Non nuclear options are possible eg he could false flag and then use chemical or biological weapons or more likely destroy the dams which would flood a massive low lying area on the left bank of the Dnipro or those north of Kiev in which hundreds of thousands of people live or just double the size of his army - we just don’t know - but Putin still has options if he decides to escalate.

wanderlust wrote:

Whitesince63 wrote:It seems that the Ukrainians believe they’ve got Russia on the run so why would they want to settle now and give territory away? There will have to be a negotiated settlement at some point but I don’t see it happening yet and maybe not even until they’ve reclaimed all territory, including Crimea?

Sometimes evacuation can signal escalation and there’s no way Putin will back down or let Ukraine win.

Non nuclear options are possible eg he could false flag and then use chemical or biological weapons or more likely destroy the dams which would flood a massive low lying area on the left bank of the Dnipro or those north of Kiev in which hundreds of thousands of people live or just double the size of his army - we just don’t know - but Putin still has options if he decides to escalate.

You really don't know what you are talking about.

The west has committed to support Ukraine full stop - there will be no pressuring them into anything.  Maybe that might change if Trump becomes President again but the war will be over then.

Yes Putin's got options - all of them bad!

If he goes down the nuclear or chemical rout America will retaliate - it is said they will simply sink the Russian Black Sea fleet.

Conscription is beginning to cause major problems in that they can't arm the new recruits they have just mobilised and artillery from just after the second World War is being shown as being delivered to the front.

They can mobilise a million more if they want but they simply don't have any weapons to give them.

They are seeking arms from Iran, which in turn means they want something from Russia which is more than likely nuclear technology and knowhow.  Iran would use the bomb on Israel, which in turn is having the effect of Israel beginning to move off the fence and starting to assist Ukraine with their military knowhow.

Russia has already blown a few dams but the effectiveness is only temporary until the water level settles.

Putin is no longer looking the strongman and so he's forced to go all in on winning the war - but he can't win it with the army he has.

Will he do something daft - who knows but there will certainly be consequences for him if he does.

Will he be purged - maybe but those who purge him will be zealots just as bad if not worse than him.

Russia HAS to be beaten on the battlefield or any settlements will only be temporary until Russia builds up its armies and go on the attack again.

That is what ALL the western governments analysis of Russia are stating publicly.

But I'm sure you think you know much better than they all do.

Thanks for the update. Please post your links to the “experts” who have claimed Putin doesn’t have the option of blowing dams or using illegal weapons so I can contact them to put them right.