Is there going to be a war?

It's been brewing for months with Prighozin slamming Shiogu at every opportunity and until recently Putin wasn't really arsed about it. Ironically the Russian state media propaganda machine which I follow via Julia Davis could play a role in deciding if this turns into a full scale coup although Solvoyov appears to be in shock today - he really is a mealy - mouthed snake so I guess him and that mental RT woman are deciding which side to take rather than coming out with their usual full on official line. Meanwhile Wagner's Telegram channel is pumping out their narrative.

I'd be surprised if the Russian people take to the streets given that the majority believe state media, but if Prighozin actually wants a coup rather than just making a point, it could ramp up conflict with NATO even more.

Fascinating, yet scary times.

The other thing to bear in mind is that Prighozin and Putin are buddies and have been since the St Petersburg KGB/mafia alliance days - so theoretically Prig is arguing that he's getting after Shiogu to protect his mate from incompetent people.
Putin can't allow an uprising or be shown to be weak - but equally he doesn't want to go up against his old mate - but will have to.
How the pro-Ukranian forces inside Russia or the extreme far right will react to all this makes for a potentially volatile situation.

Hello....

Wagner Telegram channel saying "Putin made a mistake. No problem - soon there's going to be a new President"

So much for looking after your mates...

Thanks for your input.

I see you haven't bothered to read the thread (or at least my recent posts) as if you did you would see I posted up the FULL version of Putin's speech TWO HOURS earlier than yours - which by the way is only showing a fraction of it!!! (see post 353 for the full version)

Your statement about Prigozhin knowing Putin in his KGB days is factually wrong, they first met when Putin was already the President of Russia which he became in 1999.

Not that it means much or I'm trying to score points but simply to point out that if you have your basic facts wrong then your views built from them become automatically false also.

In fact Shoigu is one of Putin's closest personal of friends, they are even known to go on weekend break holiday's together, so I doubt he would throw him under the bus for Prigozhin lightly, if at all.

As for Solvoyov, Skabeyeva and the rest of the daily Russian talk show presenters, they are all Kremlin puppets and all will continue to pump out Putin's views of the world.

And fwiw Prigozhin only claims that he wants to oust Shoigu and Gerasimov and has not mentioned anything about attempting a coup - although I doubt he would say no if it ended up that way.

Apparently Putin's plane has left Moscow heading for St Petersburg - with presumably Putin on board?

His official spokesman Peskov has officially denied he has!

The bloke who tweeted this is an investigated journalist with over 500,000 followers.

Wonder which one of them is right...?

Putin talking to fellow dictator and moron Erdogan. 

Don't forget turkey are in NATO and should be expelled immediately but sadly biden still asleep at weakling Rishi too busy walking round the coast in a stab vest.

Erdogan is anything but a moron!

Ok he is certainly an autocrat who has taken control of his country which took some doing but he isn't someone we in the west would prefer to work with - but needs must.

Don't know if you've watched this but it explains how he 'played the political game' superbly to obtain power and keep it - certainly worth a watch if you like this sort of stuff...

Turkey: Empire of Erdogan

Growing up at a time of chronic political turbulence in Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan joins an Islamist party and becomes hugely popular as mayor of Istanbul. In the 1990s, Turkish politics is bitterly divided on the question of religion and politics, so when the party Erdogan belongs to is shut down, Erdogan is sent to jail and banned from being an MP for life.

In prison, Erdogan plots an astonishing comeback, creating a new, more moderate party which sweeps to power in 2002. It overturns his ban from politics and makes him prime minister.

In his early years in power, Erdogan transforms Turkey, gaining ever more support at home and abroad. But he knows that to feel safe in power, he needs to deal with the all-powerful military. He forms an alliance with a cleric, Fethullah Gulen, and together they plot to remove hundreds of high-ranking officers and judges, and replace them with followers of Gulen.

After ten years of Erdogan’s rule, a demonstration about plans to redevelop Gezi Park in Istanbul becomes a massive protest movement that threatens to topple his government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p0d9cfyv/turkey-empire-of-erdogan-series-1-episode-1

I thought this was funny - and somewhat relevant!

Chechen forces headed toward Rostov in a vast convoy according to some.

boltonbonce wrote:Chechen forces headed toward Rostov in a vast convoy according to some.

Yes, ironic really, one private army brought in to fight another private army because Russia's army doesn't seem to be up to it!

With Progozhin ordering his troops to turn back "to avoid bloodshed" it's probably the worst outcome for Ukraine. Putin will need to distract from the political situation and appease the bloodlust so an even more brutal assault on Ukraine is likely.
And Prigozhin is a dead man walking.

His troops will now see him as a total coward and lightweight and likely kill him themselves.

What a strange end to all the excitement?

I imagine we haven't heard the end of this, scores still need to be settled.


Posted at 23:29 24 Jun
Is this the end of Prigozhin and Wagner?

Yevgeny Prigozhin moving to Belarus and Wagner fighters being absorbed into the Russian military could spell the end of the notorious mercenary outfit, an expert has told the BBC.

Andrew D'Anieri, from the US-based Atlantic Council think tank, says it is hard to say exactly what will happen, given the chaotic and unclear nature of the information coming out of Russia.

But he also says the Wagner retreat doesn't mean all private military companies in Russia are "on the outs either".

"Even though they are technically illegal in Russia, we have seen a proliferation of them in the past 12 months or so."

D'Anieri says it has become clear over the last day "just how small the decision making circle is in Moscow" and how brittle Vladimir Putin's authority is.

If you followed along with the main Kremlin propagandists... there was a lot of silence and not knowing what to do, because there really didn't seem to be a decision made about how to respond."


Analysis

Posted at 23:38 24 June
Potential fallout far beyond Russia and Ukraine

Joe Inwood

BBC correspondent, formerly covering Ukraine and Africa

Yevgeni Prigozhin may have stepped back from the brink, but events of the last 24 hours will have fundamentally altered his relationship with Russia’s president.

Once called 'Putin’s chef' because of his work in catering, Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenary company have for many years played a key, if covert, role in Russian foreign policy.

Putin used Wagner to intervene in a way that he was unable or unwilling to do, publicly at least.

From shoring up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, to running bot farms accused of trying to interfere in the 2016 US elections, Wagner has played an increasingly important role in some of the world’s most troubled locations.

But it is in Africa that the mercenaries are thought to have the biggest footprint.

In Mali, for example, where coups in 2020 and 2021 saw the instillation of a military regime, Wagner are heavily involved in fighting a long-running Islamist insurgency. Although it is believed they are there at the behest of the Russian government, Wagner are the boots on the ground.

In the Central African Republic, where they are said to be helping the government to defend the capital from rebel groups, Wagner have been accused of widespread human rights abuses.

Given that it seems likely that Wagner will now be ostracised by the Kremlin, what will happen to the fighters in Africa and the governments they support?

On top of that, they are thought to control significant mineral resources, the source of much of the group’s wealth.

Will Prigozhin be able to maintain his grip on these, now that he has fallen so far from favour?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142

Wagner made their fortune in sub saharan Africa by stealing natural resources, especially precious minerals and selling them for billions - so working for Wagner is/was a lucrative business. Whether the financial incentives will remain is open to question.
Prigozhin's grip may also have loosened because of the backlash of his own men to his turning back from Moscow, so it will be interesting to see what happens to Wagner - possibly being subsumed into the RA rather than another leader emerging or Prigozhin trying to run it from exile?

I imagine that Prigozhin will die peacefully in his sleep from natural causes within 18 months.

Prigozhin would have left his right hand man and others he could utterly trust running Wagner operations in Africa (and Syria) so he'll still retain those no matter what (and they will still continue to recruit highly trained mercenaries to make sure no one try's to take it off them - and no doubt to expand their 'business' else where in Africa and the world).

Wagner is basically two separate bits joined together, the well trained Russian mercenaries who worked for him before the 'Special Military Operation' and the 'expendables' who joined him from prisons.

I would suspect much of the former to either go into exile with Prigozhin or end up in the gulags and the latter will be sent to the front line as usual, probably under another name than Wagner.

I very much suspect that Prigozhin will make his own way out of Russia - it wouldn't surprise me if he flew to Syria, Turkey or Saudi or some place like that rather than supposedly Belorussia and run his 'empire' from there and even make himself available to be 'called to his nations rescue' when Putin falls.

I don't think he'll be dying anytime soon under such country's protection.


There is a story that part of the deal will be that Shoigu and Gerasimov will be replaced as Prigozhin demanded (and in theory why he marched on Moscow).

In order for Putin not to lose face the deal apparently is they will be replaced gradually in a couple of months time.

Obviously it could just be bollocks (or it could be true and Putin reneges) but it would make some sense that Prigozhin got something out of the deal to turn his troops around from Moscow.

Of course the whole thing could always be just a huge propaganda exercise to confuse the West with Prigozhin moving out of Russia to concentrate on other regions with the Russian parts being consumed into the Russian army, which seems logical to give Putin direct control of all operations? It seems that Wagner troops were getting all the plaudits whilst the Russian forces failed so to build confidence back to the Russian people this could all be a very well worked smokescreen?

No, its definitely not that!

Prigozhin dug himself a hole.

He had his own army and ran off too much at the mouth, making himself a public rival to Putin, who was/is losing the war.

Putin decided to shut him down by making it a law that private armies had to now come under the Russian Army command - which is run by Shoigu - the man  Prigozhin hates (and who hates him!)

He couldn't give up his power base or he wouldn't live long if he did!

He tried for mass support in his March on Moscow but clearly no one wanted to die to support him - nor anyone wanted to die to stop him - which clearly became a major embarrassment for Putin.

Wagner without support from within the various armed forces simply could not take Moscow or the Kremlin - so what was the point of Wagner getting to Moscow if they did?

Both Putin and Prigozhin had anything to gain from things continuing - neither had support from either the people or the various armed forces - and Putin's position was getting weaker by the minute as he clearly hadn't the power to crush the 25,000 Wagners with in theory an army of 4.5 million.

Prigozhin had control of Rostov and it's airport and could easily fly out south if he had need to - which I think he probably has now done.

If both wanted a way out - then Prigozhin got a pardon and banishment and a pledge his men won't be prosecuted and Putin stopped the march on Moscow and got control of Wagner in Russia and the Ukraine.

Seems a good result for Prigozhin, and Putin still remains the boss of Russia.

There doesn't seem any public / military wish to get rid of Putin even though everyone says he is much weakened.

Prigozhin is a war hawk and wanted Russia to go all in on defeating Ukraine - conscription, martial law, putting the economy on a war footing etc, so Ukraine may prefer the Devil they already know - at least for now.

That's how I read what has gone on and why.

The great conspiracy of Putin and Prigozhin working together is simply utter balls.

Would you put your trust in Putin?

Would you put your trust in Prigozhin?

So why would anyone think they'd put their trust in each other?

They wouldn't.

It is simply a story to cover the huge embarrassment up of why Prigozhin took Rostov - which is a massive military hub and HQ for the Russian Southern Front in the Ukraine - and it's military airport and huge armouries without a defensive shot being fired - and Wagner getting less than 200 miles from Moscow in a day without being seriously stopped.

No one wants to die to defend Putin - simple as that.

After guests on Solovyov's primetime evening show unanimously showed surprise at the outcome of the march on Moscow and agreed that Progozhin should be shot in the head, there's a rumour now circulating in Russia that Prigozhin hasn't been pardoned after all....