Coronavirus - the political argument

Just shy of another 4,000 new cases of the virus - I'm still having difficulty understanding these numbers...



...and it seems the government health advisors do too! -


16:27
Testing at a 'high plateau'
Prof Van-Tam has shown a graph of the UK's daily testing data. He said we appeared to be at a "high plateau" around the 100,000 testing mark.

Turning to the increase in new cases, he said the data shows how mass swab testing is helping identify cases of Covid-19 in the population but acknowledged the difficulty in identifying trends from this data.

"Interpret the data with a degree of care please," he said of the numbers, which show 3,896 more cases were confirmed in the UK in the 24 hours until 09:00 on Saturday.

I can get my head around whether these new cases ARE 'new cases or just picking up people who HAD the virus and not really realised it?

In the graph below, it shows the total of 'new cases' are comprised of those tested by the NHS (blue) and those by others, universities, research industries, etc (orange)



Now I'm guessing that the NHS tests are done in hospitals - the trend is clearly dropping - in line with deaths as well it must be said - and the orange testing are the 'home kits' which you do via the post and the 'pop up sites' that I think(?) the army are doing.

I'm further guessing that they also include 'private' care homes and the NHS are doing 'state' care homes - are there still such a thing?

Anyway the increase in testing have clearly found more 'new' cases but haven't as yet manifested itself into more 'new' deaths - maybe there is a time lag that will hit in say three or four weeks time?

Another guess of mine is that IF all these additional thousands of 'new' cases found recently are NOT people who have HAD the virus, then logic would suggest that such a number of these 'new' cases would be requiring hospitalisation - unfortunately I can't seem to find an up to date statistical chart for this - the best I can find is here from 4 days ago.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/883305/2020-05-05_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides__002_.pdf

So either we are getting a load of new cases, which will manifest themselves in increased hospitalisation (and a spike in deaths further down the line) or the tests must be showing people who have HAD the virus and presumably no longer currently have it?

I guess we will find out one way or the other soon enough BUT if they are 'new' cases genuinely, then where have they all suddenly come from (they can't ALL be from care homes) and as a chunk of these new cases must have come from people who might work in hospital/care homes but return home into the community and statistically must be spreading the virus to family, friends and work colleagues who are also living in the community too?

Something doesn't seem to quite fit here to my way of thinking?

Am I missing something obvious?

Looks like the scapegoating has begun, at least one cabinet minister in the press today briefing against Matt Hancock.

He’s had quite a bit of negative press/ dodgy interviews, but he was reportedly one of the ministers who had wanted to get lockdown in place while the herd immunity strategy was still being pursued. So it does seem a little harsh.

I'm still on about the above.

Read an article today not directly related to this but was by Professor  John Wright of Bradford Royal Infirmary who is a doctor and epidemiologist -

https://www.bradfordresearch.nhs.uk/home-extended/about/john-wright/

Towards the end of the article he states this -

The test for Covid-19 we have at present only tells us whether someone is infected at the time the test is carried out. We haven't yet, in the NHS, got a reliable test that reveals whether someone had it in the past, but we hope to have one in the next few weeks.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449

Which seems to be echoed by this -



Also for what it is worth this from Van-Tam from yesterday's briefing -

Speaking at the Downing Street coronavirus briefing, deputy chief medical officer Prof Jonathan Van-Tam said he expected "fluctuation" in the day-to-day figures.
He said: "We are now really at a high plateau, in the region of 100,000 tests per day.

"I don't think we can read too much into day-to-day variations, but the macro picture is this is now at a much, much higher level than it ever was at the beginning of this crisis."

Does he mean the increased number of tests or the increased number of new cases - as that statement can equally apply to both? (I assume he only means tests though).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52603566

I'm coming to the view that the tests really are showing 'new' cases and not those who 'had' the virus - in which case there really does seem to be an awful lot of people testing positive right now.

I think the key indicator to keep an eye on is if there becomes a upsurge in hospital admissions with Covid-19.

If there isn't then I guess the tests are showing that many people do have the virus but it has not developed in to Covid-19 and cab self isolate at home.

I'm wondering if the initial idea was for an easing off of lockdown but these number of new cases arising from the upsurge in testing recently has put a bit of a break on doing that and maybe only some minor easing of the lockdown will be done today with a review in 3 weeks or so time?

I guess we'll find out in a couple of hours.

Any thoughts on what Boris has said?

My view fwiw is that he's basically said (based on my experience local to me) is what more and more people are doing already - namely ignoring the lock down message and not staying in already!

Might be a different story elsewhere - I guess from the responses from Scotland, Wales and NI - they are adhering to it more - but around near me that simply isn't the case anymore.

If you can't stop people from going out - there's already started to be people protests in the London area about lockdown - then you have two choices, crackdown hard on it, or step back somewhat and make it allowable again.

From my limited understanding of what is going on, it seems to me that there is a big/huge increase recently of 'new' cases of the virus but they seem to be linked mainly to hospital and care home environments and that for now at least community spread is so far under control.

The key to my mind therefore is not the numbers of 'new' cases (although they still need to be kept below 'R') but what any increase may mean on hospital admissions resulting from greater socialising - which will bound to be going on.

If I'm right about the stats side of things, as long as you are under 60 and already healthy, the risks of dying from the virus is very small - so it does sort of make sense to get more and more people back to work and business going again because if the economy goes down the tubes we might as a country be in a far worse position in a few months AND still have the virus as well!

The big downside to this is really for us who are 60 and over and with existing health conditions as there seems to be more of a chance the virus being passed on to you and though the person who gave it you will probably turn out to be ok in the end - but you and me might very well not!

The bottom line I guess is that life has to go on and we all have to get on with it and dodge the virus as best we can.

No doubt some will tell me that easing the lockdown shouldn't happen until everything is perfectly safe for everyone but we simply don't live in that perfect world they must fantasise for.

Anybody got a different view of things?

Watched the Boris update earlier. No surprises really, basically the data isn’t safe enough yet so no real change - fair enough. Why the need to change to a vague ‘stay alert’ message? I don’t know. Hold tight for another few weeks I suppose.

Sluffy wrote:Any thoughts on what Boris has said?

My view fwiw is that he's basically said (based on my experience local to me) is what more and more people are doing already - namely ignoring the lock down message and not staying in already!

Might be a different story elsewhere - I guess from the responses from Scotland, Wales and NI - they are adhering to it more - but around near me that simply isn't the case anymore.

If you can't stop people from going out - there's already started to be people protests in the London area about lockdown - then you have two choices, crackdown hard on it, or step back somewhat and make it allowable again.

From my limited understanding of what is going on, it seems to me that there is a big/huge increase recently of 'new' cases of the virus but they seem to be linked mainly to hospital and care home environments and that for now at least community spread is so far under control.

The key to my mind therefore is not the numbers of 'new' cases (although they still need to be kept below 'R') but what any increase may mean on hospital admissions resulting from greater socialising - which will bound to be going on.

If I'm right about the stats side of things, as long as you are under 60 and already healthy, the risks of dying from the virus is very small - so it does sort of make sense to get more and more people back to work and business going again because if the economy goes down the tubes we might as a country be in a far worse position in a few months AND still have the virus as well!

The big downside to this is really for us who are 60 and over and with existing health conditions as there seems to be more of a chance the virus being passed on to you and though the person who gave it you will probably turn out to be ok in the end - but you and me might very well not!

The bottom line I guess is that life has to go on and we all have to get on with it and dodge the virus as best we can.

No doubt some will tell me that easing the lockdown shouldn't happen until everything is perfectly safe for everyone but we simply don't live in that perfect world they must fantasise for.

Anybody got a different view of things?

That is pretty much my take on it as well.

I have just turned 70 but am philosophical about the potential risk I face. A strict lockdown is impossible to maintain indefinitely until a vaccine is available. As long as the NHS is not overwhelmed we just have to live with the reality that some people are going to die. As it is people are dying now because they can't get the treatment that they would normally receive.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:Watched the Boris update earlier. No surprises really, basically the data isn’t safe enough yet so no real change - fair enough. Why the need to change to a vague ‘stay alert’ message? I don’t know. Hold tight for another few weeks I suppose.

My thinking is that he has to get the economy moving again or the business will collapse (think BWFC and how long can the owners keep paying the bills (fixed costs, players wages, non furloughed staff wages, maintenance of ground and facilities, etc, etc)), without any money coming in from trading, before the business goes bust?

Add to that people are seeing that other country's have been 'unlocking' (note Germany's R number has now apparently gone over 1) and plenty seem to have had enough of staying in and not seeing their mates.

Ideally we would wait until the R number is well down but as the extract of an article below points out it's taken weeks to get it to about R= 0.7 and large amounts of people (certainly around where I life) simply seem to have given up being locked down.

The following couple of articles/links may put it into some sort of perspective of the balance between opening up the economy/reducing a lockdown that daily is being increasingly ignored (or so it seems to me) and keeping people safe (or perhaps another way of rephrasing that being the vast numbers under 60 will be safe from Corona-19 anyway so unlocking them makes sense even if it puts the 60 and overs and those with existing health issues as the next group to be thrown under the bus when the second spike hits).

As countries think about how to lift lockdown, the aim will be to keep the reproduction number below one.
Dr Adam Kucharski, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told the BBC: "It's a big challenge making sure you're not loosening too much and increasing transmission."
However it has taken a monumental effort, one that has caused damage to people's lives, to get the number from three to 0.7.
"It doesn't give you a lot of room to play with [to keep the number below one]", Dr Kucharski added.
Earlier in April, Germany's reproduction number fell to about 0.7, the same as the UK's now.
But the Robert Koch Institute said that number had increased in recent days to one, before dropping back to 0.75. [SEE NOTE BELOW]
"The number should stay below one, that is the big goal," said Prof Lothar Wieler, head of the institute.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52473523

NOTE - Germany UP again to R=1.13

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52604676

Not that I like it much, being over 60 and with health issues but few if any will wish to stop in just to keep me safe, when their jobs are at threat, money tight and social lives non-existent for the next 18 months/2 years until someone comes up with a coronavirus jab to make us all safe again.

And I'd probably be the same if I was thirty years younger too.

Life has to go on no matter how much sometimes you wish it wouldn't.

We had different interpretations then. I didn’t hear any changes for getting the economy going again, in fact I don’t think much has changed.

The messaging was far from clear though, it was a communications nightmare. And I’m left wondering if the speech has had to change significantly in the last day or two to reflect the data. There just seemed so little substance there considering.

The whole thing seems to be a mess now with what he has come out with.

What about the people who have children and both parents work in a factory?

The schools are shut and other family members can’t look after them if they don’t live in the same household.

Businesses simply can’t open up tomorrow with everyone back in working until they have a plan with PPE and the social working environment.

It also makes it more complicated with Wales, NI and Scotland doing this differently now as well.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:We had different interpretations then. I didn’t hear any changes for getting the economy going again, in fact I don’t think much has changed.

The messaging was far from clear though, it was a communications nightmare. And I’m left wondering if the speech has had to change significantly in the last day or two to reflect the data. There just seemed so little substance there considering.

Seemed fairly clear to me - those who can't work from home 'encouraged' to go back to work tomorrow (but please don't use public transport if you can - implication being there's going to be loads going back and not enough tube trains/busses for them to use - pictures in the paper of non social distancing crowded trains again!)) - Boris even specifically named construction and manufacturing sector workers.

Also flagging up the intent to open re-open shops from June and the hospitality industry in July (fingers crossed - if all goes well).

Bottom line I guess is that business need to earn money or they cease to exist, throwing thousands/millions out of work.  Same reason that France, Germany, USA, etc need to start ending their lockdowns before R=0 in their respective country's.

The message/communication was/is really bad - for example what's the point in telling people they can go out as long as they want from Wednesday onwards but have to be in lockdown tomorrow and Tuesday - what difference will that make - and how many will even bother waiting until Wednesday now?

Yes, I'm fairly certain that the master plan has been changed in the last day or so and certainly since they started to deliberately preluding things were going to be happen (exercise all day, opening garden centres, etc) four or five days ago - I think (and said as much) that I believe the high number of new positive test results (something like 4,000 a day constantly for the last five or six days without any sign of dropping off) had been totally unexpected and that there was far more people walking around with the virus than they ever expected - hence a much reduced easing of lockdown than what was going to be originally announced.

Certainly their trendy word 'lockstep' with solidarity with Scotland and Wales has gone out of the window because they built themselves up to obviously do something they've intended to do but have had to scale it right back to what they eventually said this evening.

In my view they are seeing what effect all these cases may have on hospital admissions in the next week or two, and probably would have had shops and definitely gardening centres opening up from tomorrow also and instead have put that back now for another three weeks to the beginning of June.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:We had different interpretations then. I didn’t hear any changes for getting the economy going again, in fact I don’t think much has changed.

Not having a pop at you or anything but just showing that I clearly wasn't the only one to see it this way -

As much as I like Boris, I believe that his statement has helped nobody. Yet again he’s tried to please everyone and fallen between two stools. Hopefully his update in Parliament will clarify some things. 
He and his government still haven’t realised that though we have a liberal society we still need to be governed/led, and actually need to be told what to do, and rules need to be enforced until we toe the line. The virus is still out there and needs to be respected.

Utter shambolic messaging last night, he left so many questions it was quite embarrassing, It's one thing taking advice and differing from other countries, but to have a split decision and different messaging within the UK is baffling to say the least, he gave 12 hours notice to mobilse the workforce to get to work without using public transport or was it Wednesday?  Either the R rate is essential or it's not if the only way we get rid of this virus is by the rate being under 1 , then why at this point release a mumbled message to allow people to go out and about and almost certainley push the rate up.

I accept this is a really diffcult for any government but i lay the blame for much of this at our starting point after 10 years of neglect, Health care was seen to be something we could cut costs on shamefully, and there he stands clapping the NHS whilst the reality is that when the vote to give the sector a pay rise every conservative MP voted against any award , bloody hypocrits.

In summary there is a reason why a circus uses a ring master and not a clown to run the show.

wessy wrote:Utter shambolic messaging last night, he left so many questions it was quite embarrassing, It's one thing taking advice and differing from other countries, but to have a split decision and different messaging within the UK is baffling to say the least, he gave 12 hours notice to mobilse the workforce to get to work without using public transport or was it Wednesday?  Either the R rate is essential or it's not if the only way we get rid of this virus is by the rate being under 1 , then why at this point release a mumbled message to allow people to go out and about and almost certainley push the rate up.

I accept this is a really diffcult for any government but i lay the blame for much of this at our starting point after 10 years of neglect, Health care was seen to be something we could cut costs on shamefully, and there he stands clapping the NHS whilst the reality is that when the vote to give the sector a pay rise every conservative MP voted against any award , bloody hypocrits.

In summary there is a reason why a circus uses a ring master and not a clown to run the show.

Couldn't agree more with all of that.

wessy wrote:Utter shambolic messaging last night, he left so many questions it was quite embarrassing, It's one thing taking advice and differing from other countries, but to have a split decision and different messaging within the UK is baffling to say the least, he gave 12 hours notice to mobilse the workforce to get to work without using public transport or was it Wednesday?  Either the R rate is essential or it's not if the only way we get rid of this virus is by the rate being under 1 , then why at this point release a mumbled message to allow people to go out and about and almost certainley push the rate up.

I accept this is a really diffcult for any government but i lay the blame for much of this at our starting point after 10 years of neglect, Health care was seen to be something we could cut costs on shamefully, and there he stands clapping the NHS whilst the reality is that when the vote to give the sector a pay rise every conservative MP voted against any award , bloody hypocrits.

In summary there is a reason why a circus uses a ring master and not a clown to run the show.

It should have been left as is for another 2-3 weeks to get the numbers right down. I agree with Wessy as well, it just isn't clear guidance.

As an example what do parents do with their children if they have top go back to work but aren't classed as key workers? Where do those people stand if employers insist they go back?

wessy wrote:I accept this is a really diffcult for any government but i lay the blame for much of this at our starting point after 10 years of neglect, Health care was seen to be something we could cut costs on shamefully, and there he stands clapping the NHS whilst the reality is that when the vote to give the sector a pay rise every conservative MP voted against any award , bloody hypocrits.

.

Please explain how pumping extra billions into the NHS over the last 10 years and recruiting/training a million new doctors and nurses would have made any difference to the current pandemic.

Boris isn't well served by his experts.

Exactly.