How is the Tory government doing?

From Cummings blog -

UPDATE, 17 JAN
I started writing a long explanation of the 20 May.

It was a pivotal day for reasons other than the drinks party.

It was the day on which days of intense conflict over the the future of the government — including the Cabinet Office, Cabinet Secretary and the PPS’s own job, the real core of hidden power in the British state — came to boiling point. In many ways, the decisions and emotions of that day led directly to my departure.

Discussions about the PPS’s party invite at lunchtime therefore occurred in an extremely combustible environment. People were screaming in rage and frustration at the chaos the PM had caused by botched sackings and telling everybody different things. People were threatening to resign and hold press conferences. Whitehall was looking to the PM’s office for leadership on covid but it was a particularly intense shambles that day.

The whole thing is so profoundly depressing I can’t bring myself to write it all down now. I’ll just make some very simple points about the immediate issue in front of Sue Gray…

On 20 May, after the PPS sent the invitation to the drinks party, a very senior official replied by email saying the invite broke the rules. This email will be seen by Sue Gray (unless there is a foolish coverup which would also probably be a criminal offence).

The PPS went to the official’s office where they discussed it. The PPS declined to withdraw the invite.

I told the PPS the invite broke the rules.

He said: so long as it’s socially distanced I think it’s OK, I’ll check with the PM if he’s happy for it to go ahead. (Obviously even if it was ‘socially distanced’ this would in no way make it ‘within the rules’.)

I am sure he did check with the PM. (I think it very likely another senior official spoke to the PM about it but I am not sure.)

Amid discussion over the future of the Cabinet Secretary and PPS himself, which had been going on for days, I said to the PM something like: Martin’s invited the building to a drinks party, this is what I’m talking about, you’ve got to grip this madhouse.

The PM waved it aside. I had told him repeatedly the PPS should be replaced, as had other competent officials who knew the whole structure needed a huge upgrade in personnel and management. ‘He’s MY guy, I don’t want you replacing him with YOUR person.’ (Yes, this says a lot.)

I went home to bed at 3ish, still very ill from covid.

The idea that the PPS would be challenged by two of the most senior people in the building, say he’d check with the PM then not — is not credible.

Will the PPS claim that having invited people to a drinks party, he told the PM it was a ‘work meeting’?! (Claiming this, given the actual words of his invite, would, of course, necessarily imply that MR knew a drinks party was against the rules.)

Is the PM going to claim that a) his PPS told him ‘PM this is a work meeting’ and b) after he walked around the garden talking to people standing around drinking, ‘Sue, honestly, I swear to you I thought it was a work meeting’?!

No10 is throwing out as much confusing chaff as possible, such as nonsense about a ‘drinking culture’ intended to shift blame. (There was no ‘drinking culture’ while I was there but the string of parties after I left shows the PM trying to be ‘my own chief of staff’ was disastrous, as he was told it would be.)

MPs should focus on the basics.

The PM’s PPS invited people to a drinks party.

The PPS was told to cancel the invite by at least two people.

He checked with the PM whether the party should go ahead.

The PM agreed it should.

They both went to the party.

It was actually a drinks party.

The PM told MPs repeatedly that he had no idea about any parties.

The events of 20 May alone, never mind the string of other events, mean the PM lied to Parliament about parties.

Not only me but other eyewitnesses who discussed this at the time would swear under oath this is what happened.

I notice that when I explained about the PM trying to go see the Queen when he might have been infectious and I stopped him, No10 issued a total denial and I was told that ‘Martin is supporting the PM’s denial’. This episode was also witnessed by others who will tell the official inquiry that what I have said is true and the official denials are false.

There are many other photos of parties after I left yet to appear.

I’ll say more when SG’s report is published.

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Government defeated as Lords vote to make misogyny a hate crime

It's not clear if that includes misandry but I'd assume so.

Raab says "a PM who lied to Parliament would normally resign"

Lied. He used that word - and he's the Deputy Dawg.

OK - he then used a lot of waffle to obfuscate it but he was definitely putting it out there.

Surely Raab doesn't think he has a cat in hell's chance of usurping the top job?

Have to say that the noose is tightening around Boris’ neck now and from what Cummings says, it looks more and more like he did know it was a party and therefore lied to Parliament. No way can he survive that if Sue Gray records it. The amount of damage this is doing to the party is incalculable and had there been an obvious replacement I’m sure he’d already have gone but there isn’t and when you look at the list of favourites, it doesn’t fill you with confidence. That can be the only reason that he hasn’t been forced out so it’ll get dragged out as long as possible despite the damage it’s doing. As a Tory member I want him gone, not just because of Partygate but because of his atrocious manifesto pledge breaking and utterly unaffordable green agenda. We need a proper Tory and none of those proposed fit that bill so personally I still believe it will be someone from the back benches who eventually win through, preferably a true Brexiteer with Conservative beliefs.

Gosh!I agree with almost all of that, Ws63! Who do you think fits the bill as a "proper Tory"?

My local MP is one of those who have sent a letter to Sir Graham Brady supporting the calls for Boris to resign, and has also submitted a letter of complaint to the police. This is a Tory constituency!

Labour have stepped up their calls for his resignation. They appreciate that leaving him in office would probably benefit them as a party, but rightly conclude that commitment to the country has to be their priority. If only Tory MPs felt the same moral duty!

okocha wrote:Gosh!I agree with almost all of that, Ws63! Who do you think fits the bill as a "proper Tory"?

"Ready and reporting for duty Mr Maxwell Sir!"



...although I suspect he's more of a Whig than a Tory

"Boris sometimes seems affronted when criticised for what amounts to a gross failure of responsibility. I think he honestly believes that it is churlish of us not to regard him as an exception, one who should be free of the network of obligation which binds everyone else!"

This is a quote from a teacher at Eton, written on his school report to his parents in 1982.

Since then, he has been fired from two jobs for lying and uncovered as a liar, a villain and a thug by Eddie Mair on The Andrew Marr show.

His latest statements about the parties confirm him as a liar or an incompetent fool....or both

He's running out of road, I suspect that even if the Sue Gray report is the whitewash many expect it won't change public opinion on this.

His desperate policy rollout to distract from this just speaks to the lunacy of the Tory base - the Navy deployed to turn migrant boats around and a major attack on the BBC finances - incidentally one of our most successful global exports, respected everywhere but here it seems.

Global Britain my arse, get the whole party out.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:He's running out of road, is suspect even if the Sue Gray report is the whitewash many expect it won't change public opinion on this.

His desperate policy rollout to distract from this just speaks to the lunacy of the Tory base - the Navy deployed to turn migrant boats around and a major attack on the BBC finances - incidentally one of our most successful global exports, respected everywhere but here it seems.

Global Britain my arse, get the whole party out.

You need a General Election for that or 40 odd Conservatives to defect to another party - and neither of them will happen.

The Conservatives are in until 2024 and have a 80 seat majority, so as bad as it is now they still have time to move Boris on and build up their credibility enough to still win for another 5 year term.

Labour / Starmer are high in the polls now because Johnson is so toxic, not because Labour/Starmer are winning over the electorate, so that lead will fade from when Boris does eventually go.

You are right in saying that whatever Gray's investigation reports Johnson is a dead man walking as everyone knows he's not trustworthy.

The report won't nail him and there's probably no hard evidence to prove he's definitely lied but lied but the damage has been done irrespective of what it does end up saying.

I don't believe it is right to judge it a whitewash whatever it says, she can only report what she finds - for instance you problem think I'm a prat, I might well be a prat but you have no proof I am, just your opinion (and the opinion of most others on here no doubt).  That's how these things work - you report your findings not what you think may have happened.

As for operation Red Meat, all that was going on in the background anyway, they are just chucking it in now as a distraction but things will kickoff again once Gray's reported is published.

Should be fun when it is!

Thanks for taking the time to explain the obvious as always Sluffy! An early general election is not outside the realms of possibility though.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:Thanks for taking the time to explain the obvious as always Sluffy! An early general election is not outside the realms of possibility though.

Not a chance Troy, why on earth would any Tory risk a GE when the party is in such disarray? I know you’re desperate but by the time the next one comes round Boris will be history, a new PM will be in place and Labour will still be as useless as they are now. I’m afraid as Sluffy says, you’re going to have to suffer another 5 years at least of Tory government so you might as well get used to it.

I agree, it’s unlikely but to deem it an impossibility is wrong.

okocha wrote:Gosh!I agree with almost all of that, Ws63! Who do you think fits the bill as a "proper Tory"?

That’s a difficult one Oko because few back benchers get any publicity but for me I’d go firstly for Penny Maudant who I believe would go down well with the public as she’s quite forthright and holds an argument well. I actually like Ian Duncan Smith who I think was dealt a bad hand last time he led the party but I don’t expect he’d run. 

Steve Baker has all the attributes but I think he’s made too many enemies. As an outsider, I’d love Lord David Frost to run for a Parliamentary seat but I suspect he’s happier staying in the Lords and perhaps being an influencer in a new cabinet. Obviously the favourites will be the ones stated but I have a feeling when it comes to it that the party membership might punish all of those seen to be linked with Boris? I certainly will given the chance.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:I agree, it’s unlikely but to deem it an impossibility is wrong.

Fair enough but I think whilst not impossible it’s more than unlikely.

This government is like triggers brush, stick a new head on it and all's well, it's took 12 years to get us into this mess and three new brush heads, Its seems strange to me that it's ok to say  Labours poll lead is nothing to do with Stamer or the Labour party yet we exclude the effect Brexit had on the Buffoon getting an 80 seat majority, Do i think Labour will win in 2024 possibly not, but i do believe this shower need removing and quick, if that means an alliance then so be it.

We hear consistanty from the blue rinse brigade how patriotic the Tories are, then when asked to put the countries interest first they will do or say anything to either save the PM a man not fit for purpose or rummage about in the back benches looking amongst the likes of Mogg, Davies, or anybody who can dance to the tune of the 1922 committee the Brady bunch,for a true Tory what ever that is, one things for certain there is no such thing as a one nation Tory.

It's cringing to watch top ministers trying to defend the indefensible, Raab and Zahawi to name but two. Its time to put Triggers brush in the skip.

T.R.O.Y. wrote:I agree, it’s unlikely but to deem it an impossibility is wrong.

See, there you go again putting words in my mouth, I never said.

It's becoming a bad habit with you.

I didn't say it was an impossibility I said it wasn't going to happen.

Of course there's going to be a GE, that's a constitutional requirement ffs!

Second Rule of politics is when in power do what you have to do to stay in power - meaning in this instance - the Conservatives have until December 2024 to hold one and they will do it when they think they have the best chance of winning - and that won't be until all this dies down and Boris is long gone.

Christ you have a pop at me for explaining the obvious and still completely misunderstood what I said!!!

You even agree with me by saying it us unlikely - of course it is, very, very, very unlikely!

No doubt the GE would have been next year or even late this year with them having what appeared to be an unassailable 80 seat majority but that will certainly be put back now and I would hazard a guess at May 2024 being pencilled in now (if they are confident they will win, they will hold the election at the same time as local elections (first Thursday in May) as people tend to vote for the same political party in both).

Wonder who will be the PM will be by then Rishi I would imagine?