Are Labour Finished?

Yes, 100%

We'll get a hint of this after 10pm this evening when the polls close. It won't be definitive but it'll certainly be persuasive.

Do you think Council and Mayoral elections are indicative of the way it might go in a general election? I always thought of them as different as the focus is on local issues and personalities and I do know that there are lots of people who vote differently in a local election.

There's a fair bit of tactical voting in a general election in rural Norfolk as there is no point in voting Labour in this electoral system, whereas it doesn't happen in local elections which is why we have several Green Councillors.

In the last general election, the gap nationally between Tories and Labour was just over 1 million voters which  due to our undemocratic electoral system means disproportionately loads more seats for the Tories to give them control, but the fact remains that in actual numbers there wasn't that much in it. 
 
I suspect that hasn't changed much.

At this stage Labour should be picking up seats but the opinion polls suggest the opposite- and it will be interesting to see who picks up the seats they lose, should the pollsters turn out to be accurate this time. I suspect the Lib Dems under a far more acceptable leader in Tim Farron will benefit.
It will show the direction of travel of voters as a whole and I think the effect of Jeremy Corbyn and his acolytes will work to others benefit. Labour  aren't finished by a long chalk, just temporarily seriously damaged.

It's just the usual "stop / go" nature of British politics in my view.

You've got people at either end of the spectrum who will always vote for the same party, so the real power lies with the undecided minority in the middle.

And they tend to vote on current issues which are fresh in the memory, rather than any deep seated conviction or considered thought.

Thatcher was a horrible bastard in my view (and nobody's ever going to change that) but you've got to hand it to her - she knew this and decided to try and rig the system in her favour by convincing whole swathes of the working class that they were actually "aspirational Tories" rather than traditional Labour voters they'd always been.

And they all fell for it and started voting Tory just because they could afford to go to Benidorm once a year and had a colour telly.

So we had 18 years of Tory rule that lasted until they started in-fighting over Europe and people started to get bored with them and question their ability to govern, thus opening the door for Tory-Lite New Improved Labour to sweep in, all perfect teeth and sickly charm.

But then that eventually ran its course and the Tories were back (albeit propped up by Amos & Manda's lot).


I learnt about it nearly 30 years ago as a student and nothing's changed.

There have always been upsets in British Electoral history and we might just see another one today, albeit on a smaller scale since it's primarily Local Council elections in England rather than a "General" Election as it technically is in Wales And Scotland. I suspect that the Nationalists will do very well, UKIP, SNP and PC but I could be wrong and one of those upsets might just happen again. I was thinking about this when I watched the various "polls" on BBC News last night, nice graphics, lots of numbers and plenty of hot air expended by people who think they "know" what will happen tonight. 

Polls have always been notoriously unreliable yet people still give them incredible amounts of credence, particularly since World War 2. The smart money said Churchill and the Conservatives would win the 1945 election but they got battered by Clement Attlee and Labour. In the 70's everyone figured Harold Wilson would lose but he won, twice. In 1992 everyone knew Labour were going to win, that John Major was finished but he won with a 33 majority. Last year every commentator and pundit was convinced there would be another hung parliament and the Tories could not possibly gain a majority. They did. About the only thing that can be predicted for this election is that somebody who expected to win big is going to get his/her butt kicked and someone else who wins will claim it's the coming of the future, that this is proof his/her party is the true voice of the British people. 

Frankly we don't have a single voice and anyone who thinks we do is a twerp. It's actually one of the things I love about being British. Nobody can really tell us who to vote for or predict who we will vote for with any certainty. And with a multi-party system where just about every political belief under the sun can find a home it's a heck of a lot better than certain places where you get to choose between the right wing and the far right wing. (Better known as the Hilary vs Don show)

bothvotesSNP.

Hipster_Nebula wrote:bothvotesSNP.

Let's hope they want to go free from UK.

Then you can piss off!

Uncalled for.

I wanna keep you hipster.  So we can call andy murray british when he wins.

After last nights results, north of the border they seem to be. However in England and Wales there seems to be some life in the old dog- it's still alive but not faring well. it seems that Jeremy and his crew might be with us for some time yet damaging the chances of those who want a genuinely electable Labour party to regroup and mount a sensible challenge for power in the near future

rammywhite wrote:After last nights results, north of the border they seem to be. However in England and Wales there seems to be some life in the old dog- it's still alive but not faring well. it seems that Jeremy and his crew might be with us for some time yet damaging the chances of those who want a genuinely electable Labour party to regroup and mount a sensible challenge for power in the near future

Much better results for Labour than anticipated. I was watching the beginning of the results programme where some twat was listing all the Labour controlled Councils under threat and speculating how many would go - hope he and the rest of the Tory media are suitably embarrassed. How could the media (and Natasha) get it so, so wrong?

I know deriding Labour is a popular sport amongst sheep but last night's results suggested that the tide has reached it's peak. Hasn't started to turn yet though and all that will depend on how Labour reinvent themselves. Perhaps now that it's obvious they won't be obliterated in the immediate future, more charismatic and media-savvy candidates will launch a leadership challenge?

They certainly need it in Scotland although TBF they still have 24 seats (far more than expected) and it's interesting to speculate if the SNPs failure to get a workable majority was due to Tory voters being the first to abandon the SNP bandwagon or whether Labour and the Tories are just fighting their own private contest. The stats are inconclusive as Labour have been battered in the media so even UKIP and the Greens are targeting traditional Labour voters as the low hanging fruit.

I suspect Nicola Sturgeon's proposal to make £3 billion of cuts to services hasn't quite got the attention of the working class voters yet so I reckon the SNP has still got a long way to fall. Some still think it's about nationalism and independence rather than economic reality at this stage so it will take a few years I reckon. TBF the SNP has moved along ideologically since Winnie Ewing was trying to get a foothold when I lived there in the 70s although their principles remain fundamentally socialist.

Come to think of it, if they're socialist and nationalist does that make them national socialists? 

Sieg Heil Nicola.

I think too much is being read into these results for the national parties, i.e. MP's, rather than the local councils for which we voted. I have to wonder if Labour would do so well, as the turnout ould probably be higher.
Here in Cheltenham there is very little difference between the parties, and how they run the town. Both pretty good, in fairness. The biggest complaint about here, is the state of the roads, and that is run by the Conservative CC, who have withheld money, so I voted for Liberal, (again).

gloswhite wrote:I think too much is being read into these results for the national parties, i.e. MP's, rather than the local councils for which we voted. I have to wonder if Labour would do so well, as the turnout ould probably be higher.
Here in Cheltenham there is very little difference between the parties, and how they run the town. Both pretty good, in fairness. The biggest complaint about here, is the state of the roads, and that is run by the Conservative CC, who have withheld money, so I voted for Liberal, (again).

Totally agree. I suggested earlier in the thread that voting patterns are different in local elections but a few folk thought these results might be indicative of the demise of Labour as per the topic.

Manda's very quiet about all of this- you'd think she would have strong views about the position of Labour.
Come on,lass- break your silence

How did Amos get on, anybody know?

London has a new mayor, Labour's Sadiq Khan wins London mayoral election

Breadman wrote:How did Amos get on, anybody know?

I don't know, but I hope he won.

Me too.

He deserves his shot.

Rosa Kay (LAB) 2,568.
Hafiz Butt (CON) 373.
Kathleen Richardson (UKIP) 354.
Alan Johnson (GREEN) 179.
Christopher Amos (LIB DEM) 82

I think his mad rants might have worked against him.